Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Belle Thompson, while the market favors Sera Nishimoto (65%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Sydney: Belle Thompson vs Sera Nishimoto
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Belle Thompson (100%) · Belle Thompson at 35¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Belle Thompson
3
Belle Thompson 100%
$245.42
$152.11
49.5¢ → 35¢
-29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBelle Thompson at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Sera Nishimoto 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR | Belle Thompsonavg 50.3¢ | $10 | $213.34 | +$106.02 | 48% 524-573 (1097) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Belle Thompsonavg 47¢ | $40.68 | $30.32 | +$45.92 | 60% 9347-6319 (15666) |
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR<$100 | Belle Thompsonavg 58¢ | $1.58 | $1.75 | +$0.18 | 58% 194-140 (334) |
Invested
$10
Value
$213.34
PnL
+$106.02
Record
48%
524-573 (1097)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$40.68
Value
$30.32
PnL
+$45.92
Record
60%
9347-6319 (15666)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
194-140 (334)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.