W15 Singapore: Saily Prashantkumar Thakkar vs Hannah Giam
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saily Prashantkumar Thakkar (20%) · Saily Prashantkumar Thakkar at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Saily Prashantkumar Thakkar
5
Saily Prashantkumar Thakkar 20%
$5.0K
$47.19
Research grade
NeutralSaily Prashantkumar Thakkar at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Saily Prashantkumar Thakkaravg 84.7¢ | $4.5K | $4.6K | +$69.93 | 77% 27-8 (35) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Hannah Giamavg 14.3¢ | $222.55 | $217.55 | -$5.01 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Hannah Giamavg 15.5¢ | $94.06 | $90.25 | -$5.92 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Hannah Giamavg 16¢ | $94.48 | $82.67 | -$11.81 | 47% 2368-2640 (5008) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Hannah Giamavg 14¢ | $8.28 | $8.28 | +$0 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
Invested
$4,486.13
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$69.93
Record
77%
27-8 (35)
Invested
$222.55
Value
$217.55
PnL
-$5.01
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$94.06
Value
$90.25
PnL
-$5.92
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$94.48
Value
$82.67
PnL
-$11.81
Record
47%
2368-2640 (5008)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$8.28
Value
$8.28
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.