Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nicolas Tepmahc, while the market favors Aziz Ouakaa (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M15 Monastir: Nicolas Tepmahc vs Aziz Ouakaa
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Tepmahc (60%) · Nicolas Tepmahc at 0.1¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Nicolas Tepmahc
5
Nicolas Tepmahc 60%
$314.14
$-1.3K
60¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNicolas Tepmahc at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Aziz Ouakaa 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Tepmahc. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Nicolas Tepmahcavg 70¢ | $1.2K | $212.47 | $-1.0K | 53% 3187-2811 (5998) |
SF sfkjbsr457<$100 | Aziz Ouakaaavg 58.5¢ | $55.64 | $44.11 | -$11.52 | 54% 8165-6865 (15030) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Nicolas Tepmahcavg 30.1¢ | $134.07 | $35.22 | -$98.85 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Aziz Ouakaaavg 48¢ | $18.36 | $22.19 | -$2.3 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
 poshposhCTR | Nicolas Tepmahcavg 42¢ | $134.86 | $0.16 | -$134.7 | 59% 10160-7156 (17316) |
Invested
$1,239.39
Value
$212.47
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
53%
3187-2811 (5998)
Invested
$55.64
Value
$44.11
PnL
-$11.52
Record
54%
8165-6865 (15030)
Invested
$134.07
Value
$35.22
PnL
-$98.85
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$22.19
PnL
-$2.3
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
poshposhCTRInvested
$134.86
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$134.7
Record
59%
10160-7156 (17316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.