W75 Toronto: Carson Tanguilig vs Jule Niemeier
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Carson Tanguilig (67%) · Carson Tanguilig at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Carson Tanguilig
6
Carson Tanguilig 67%
$7.4K
$-1.3K
62.4¢ → 100¢
+60% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCarson Tanguilig at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO gol702 | Carson Tanguiligavg 58¢ | $5.8K | $4.6K | $-1.2K | — 1-2 (3) |
 RN1 | Carson Tanguiligavg 82.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$10.53 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Jule Niemeieravg 18.5¢ | $739.07 | $518.28 | -$220.79 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
GH ghostorder | Carson Tanguiligavg 78.3¢ | $423 | $469.8 | +$46.8 | 62% 4273-2636 (6909) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Jule Niemeieravg 41¢ | $90.26 | $118.88 | +$28.62 | 59% 30106-20832 (50938) |
 poshposh<$100 | Carson Tanguiligavg 31¢ | $12.81 | $19 | +$6.2 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$5,800
Value
$4.6K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
—
1-2 (3)
RN1Invested
$1,646.59
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$10.53
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$739.07
Value
$518.28
PnL
-$220.79
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$423
Value
$469.8
PnL
+$46.8
Record
62%
4273-2636 (6909)
Invested
$90.26
Value
$118.88
PnL
+$28.62
Record
59%
30106-20832 (50938)
poshposh<$100Invested
$12.81
Value
$19
PnL
+$6.2
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.