Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Sophie Suh — but Maria Taranova won instead.
W15 Lincoln, NE: Sophie Suh vs Maria Taranova
Resolved Maria Taranova. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Sophie Suh. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Sophie Suh 67%
$67.98
-$121.61
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Maria Taranovaavg 62¢ | $37.64 | $50 | +$12.36 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Sophie Suhavg 48.2¢ | $110.47 | — | -$108.71 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Maria Taranovaavg 23¢ | $4.14 | $17.98 | +$13.84 | 43% 121-158 (279) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Sophie Suhavg 48¢ | $5.72 | — | -$5.72 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Sophie Suhavg 6¢ | $10.56 | — | -$10.56 | 45% 249-302 (551) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Sophie Suhavg 24.7¢ | $19.06 | — | -$19.06 | 29% 173-422 (595) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Sophie Suhavg 77¢ | $9.99 | — | -$3.76 | 50% 53-52 (105) |
Invested
$37.64
Value
$50
PnL
+$12.36
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
Invested
$110.47
Value
—
PnL
-$108.71
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$4.14
Value
$17.98
PnL
+$13.84
Record
43%
121-158 (279)
Invested
$5.72
Value
—
PnL
-$5.72
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$10.56
Value
—
PnL
-$10.56
Record
45%
249-302 (551)
Invested
$19.06
Value
—
PnL
-$19.06
Record
29%
173-422 (595)
Invested
$9.99
Value
—
PnL
-$3.76
Record
50%
53-52 (105)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
Maria Taranova — $50
38791873984189
CTRSophie Suh — $0
alpheclabs2
Maria Taranova — $17.98
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRSophie Suh — $0
lryyy
CTRSophie Suh — $0
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRSophie Suh — $0
glennyorkshire
CTRSophie Suh — $0