W50 Huamantla: Valeriya Strakhova vs Cadence Brace
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cadence Brace (60%) · Cadence Brace at 76¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Cadence Brace
5
Cadence Brace 60%
$1.4K
$177.33
79.3¢ → 76¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCadence Brace at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Cadence Brace. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Cadence Braceavg 79.5¢ | $756.09 | $713.45 | -$9.03 | 53% 61934-54221 (116155) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Valeriya Strakhovaavg 16.9¢ | $510.71 | $693.6 | +$182.89 | 46% 1702-1988 (3690) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Cadence Braceavg 71¢ | $14.33 | $17.77 | +$3.44 | 54% 10168-8540 (18708) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Cadence Braceavg 79.8¢ | $3.99 | $3.75 | -$0.24 | 60% 4500-3002 (7502) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Valeriya Strakhovaavg 19.9¢ | $2.19 | $2.48 | +$0.29 | 54% 6319-5385 (11704) |
RN1Invested
$756.09
Value
$713.45
PnL
-$9.03
Record
53%
61934-54221 (116155)
Invested
$510.71
Value
$693.6
PnL
+$182.89
Record
46%
1702-1988 (3690)
Invested
$14.33
Value
$17.77
PnL
+$3.44
Record
54%
10168-8540 (18708)
Invested
$3.99
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$0.24
Record
60%
4500-3002 (7502)
Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
6319-5385 (11704)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.