W100 New Braunfels, TX: Sloane Stephens vs Astra Sharma
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sloane Stephens (67%) · Sloane Stephens at 100¢ · $674 held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
Sloane Stephens
6
Sloane Stephens 67%
$673.72
-$61.47
68.7¢ → 100¢
+46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSloane Stephens at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Sloane Stephensavg 67¢ | $264.91 | $264.92 | +$0.01 | 58% 41280-29927 (71207) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Sloane Stephensavg 68¢ | $241.69 | $238.14 | -$3.55 | 49% 18862-19270 (38132) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Astra Sharmaavg 38¢ | $131.34 | $73.39 | -$57.96 | 49% 671-695 (1366) |
 RN1<$100 | Sloane Stephensavg 81.5¢ | $57.05 | $64.05 | +$7 | 54% 56057-48191 (104248) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Astra Sharmaavg 40.8¢ | $44.9 | $32.18 | -$6.97 | 60% 4009-2699 (6708) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Sloane Stephensavg 84¢ | $1.05 | $1.05 | +$0 | 52% 3756-3412 (7168) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$264.91
Value
$264.92
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
41280-29927 (71207)
Invested
$241.69
Value
$238.14
PnL
-$3.55
Record
49%
18862-19270 (38132)
Invested
$131.34
Value
$73.39
PnL
-$57.96
Record
49%
671-695 (1366)
RN1<$100Invested
$57.05
Value
$64.05
PnL
+$7
Record
54%
56057-48191 (104248)
Invested
$44.9
Value
$32.18
PnL
-$6.97
Record
60%
4009-2699 (6708)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3756-3412 (7168)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.