W100 New Braunfels, TX: Sloane Stephens vs Julieta Pareja
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Julieta Pareja (50%) · Julieta Pareja at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Julieta Pareja
6
Julieta Pareja 50%
$15.5K
$120.52
99.2¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJulieta Pareja at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Julieta Parejaavg 99.5¢ | $22.9K | $15.1K | +$48.57 | 98% 13088-209 (13297) |
TH thestingsnake | Julieta Parejaavg 75.1¢ | $194.63 | $165.39 | +$22.5 | 60% 4079-2748 (6827) |
 poshposh | Julieta Parejaavg 94.3¢ | $149.11 | $157.32 | +$8.21 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR | Sloane Stephensavg 34¢ | $97.14 | $138.57 | +$41.43 | 48% 538-592 (1130) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Sloane Stephensavg 49¢ | $8 | $7.92 | -$0.08 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Sloane Stephensavg 3¢ | $0.13 | $0.02 | -$0.11 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$22,897.93
Value
$15.1K
PnL
+$48.57
Record
98%
13088-209 (13297)
Invested
$194.63
Value
$165.39
PnL
+$22.5
Record
60%
4079-2748 (6827)
poshposhInvested
$149.11
Value
$157.32
PnL
+$8.21
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
Invested
$97.14
Value
$138.57
PnL
+$41.43
Record
48%
538-592 (1130)
Invested
$8
Value
$7.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.