W15 São Carlos: Marjorie Souza vs Barbara Gatica

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Barbara Gatica (23%) · Barbara Gatica at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Marjorie Souza3¢Barbara Gatica97¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Barbara Gatica

Consensus Traders

Barbara Gatica 23%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$117.21

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 96.8¢

+82% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBarbara Gatica at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Barbara Gatica

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marjorie Souza3%

Barbara Gatica97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Barbara Gatica3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL-$67.97

Marjorie Souza10 traders

Total Value$521.67

Total Shares2,867

Combined PnL-$49.24

Barbara Gatica — 23%Marjorie Souza — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Barbara Gaticaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$966	-$84	52% 815-747 (1562)
38 38791873984189CTR	Marjorie Souzaavg 20¢	$328.71	$264.86	+$94.08	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
CI cigarettesCTR	Marjorie Souzaavg 24.6¢	$123.18	$132.72	+$9.54	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Barbara Gaticaavg 81.7¢	$80.4	$94.39	+$13.99	38% 537-879 (1416)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Marjorie Souzaavg 17.2¢	$152.01	$48.7	-$103.31	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 24.5¢	$71.53	$24.8	-$46.73	48% 513-548 (1061)
poshposh<$100	Barbara Gaticaavg 81¢	$18.35	$20.39	+$2.04	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 17¢	$17	$19	+$2	44% 365-466 (831)
dips.CTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 7.2¢	$7.65	$11.22	+$3.57	47% 967-1091 (2058)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 10.9¢	$6.88	$7.24	+$0.35	45% 653-812 (1465)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 22.7¢	$14.75	$6.5	-$8.25	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 19¢	$6.44	$5.76	-$0.68	46% 487-575 (1062)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Marjorie Souzaavg 20¢	$0.68	$0.86	+$0.19	45% 801-984 (1785)

NotJump

Barbara Gatica

Invested

$1,050

Value

$966

PnL

-$84

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

38791873984189CTR

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$328.71

Value

$264.86

PnL

+$94.08

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

cigarettesCTR

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$123.18

Value

$132.72

PnL

+$9.54

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Barbara Gatica

Invested

$80.4

Value

$94.39

PnL

+$13.99

Record

38%

537-879 (1416)

topdogbigboiCTR

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$152.01

Value

$48.7

PnL

-$103.31

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$71.53

Value

$24.8

PnL

-$46.73

Record

48%

513-548 (1061)

poshposh<$100

Barbara Gatica

Invested

$18.35

Value

$20.39

PnL

+$2.04

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$17

Value

$19

PnL

+$2

Record

44%

365-466 (831)

dips.CTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$7.65

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$3.57

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

smithagentCTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$6.88

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$0.35

Record

45%

653-812 (1465)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$14.75

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$8.25

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$6.44

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.68

Record

46%

487-575 (1062)

lryyyCTR<$100

Marjorie Souza

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.86

PnL

+$0.19

Record

45%

801-984 (1785)

Research grade

NeutralBarbara Gatica at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Barbara Gatica

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Barbara Gatica wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.