M15 Hua Hin: Pitchayapong Soponpisut vs Aditya Kothari

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Aditya Kothari (33%) · Aditya Kothari at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Pitchayapong Soponpisut5¢Aditya Kothari95¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aditya Kothari

Consensus Traders

Aditya Kothari 33%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$239.14

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 95¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAditya Kothari at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aditya Kothari

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pitchayapong Soponpisut5%

Aditya Kothari95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aditya Kothari3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,028

Combined PnL+$226.95

Pitchayapong Soponpisut6 traders

Total Value$48.8

Total Shares905

Combined PnL+$12.19

Aditya Kothari — 33%Pitchayapong Soponpisut — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CandleHammerDrums	Aditya Kothariavg 85.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$218.55	49% 605-637 (1242)
LR lryyy<$100	Aditya Kothariavg 87¢	$76.67	$84.92	+$8.25	45% 942-1132 (2074)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pitchayapong Soponpisutavg 6¢	$162.79	$17.33	+$10.03	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Pitchayapong Soponpisutavg 1¢	$3.71	$14.84	+$11.13	4% 12-327 (339)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Pitchayapong Soponpisutavg 19¢	$9.4	$7.17	-$2.23	52% 197-181 (378)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Aditya Kothariavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.4	+$0.15	45% 442-540 (982)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Pitchayapong Soponpisutavg 13.7¢	$6.7	$4.17	-$2.54	41% 692-1008 (1700)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Pitchayapong Soponpisutavg 3¢	$3	$4	+$1	53% 7408-6544 (13952)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Pitchayapong Soponpisutavg 15.6¢	$6.5	$1.29	-$5.21	46% 854-997 (1851)

CandleHammerDrums

Aditya Kothari

Invested

$1,697.63

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$218.55

Record

49%

605-637 (1242)

lryyy<$100

Aditya Kothari

Invested

$76.67

Value

$84.92

PnL

+$8.25

Record

45%

942-1132 (2074)

38791873984189CTR

Pitchayapong Soponpisut

Invested

$162.79

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$10.03

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Pitchayapong Soponpisut

Invested

$3.71

Value

$14.84

PnL

+$11.13

Record

12-327 (339)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Pitchayapong Soponpisut

Invested

$9.4

Value

$7.17

PnL

-$2.23

Record

52%

197-181 (378)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Aditya Kothari

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

442-540 (982)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Pitchayapong Soponpisut

Invested

$6.7

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$2.54

Record

41%

692-1008 (1700)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Pitchayapong Soponpisut

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

7408-6544 (13952)

smithagentCTR<$100

Pitchayapong Soponpisut

Invested

$6.5

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$5.21

Record

46%

854-997 (1851)

Research grade

NeutralAditya Kothari at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aditya Kothari

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aditya Kothari wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.