W15 Essen: Leticia Solakov vs Lian Tran
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lian Tran (60%) · Lian Tran at 100¢ · $279 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Lian Tran
5
Lian Tran 60%
$279.36
-$28.15
85¢ → 100¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLian Tran at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lian Tran. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Lian Tranavg 84.6¢ | $149.51 | $166.18 | +$16.67 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
MI milktea3 | Lian Tranavg 87¢ | $96 | $104.91 | +$14.26 | 70% 2087-874 (2961) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Lian Tranavg 66¢ | $5.08 | $7.32 | +$0 | 55% 1723-1416 (3139) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Leticia Solakovavg 20¢ | $3.35 | $0.82 | -$3.34 | 48% 753-814 (1567) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Leticia Solakovavg 20.5¢ | $55.88 | $0.14 | -$55.74 | 38% 3185-5189 (8374) |
Invested
$149.51
Value
$166.18
PnL
+$16.67
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$96
Value
$104.91
PnL
+$14.26
Record
70%
2087-874 (2961)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$7.32
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1723-1416 (3139)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$3.34
Record
48%
753-814 (1567)
Invested
$55.88
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$55.74
Record
38%
3185-5189 (8374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.