M15 Fergana: Digvijay Pratap Singh vs Aristarkh Safonov
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Aristarkh Safonov (75%) · Aristarkh Safonov at 67¢ · $332 held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
Aristarkh Safonov
4
Aristarkh Safonov 75%
1 arb excluded
$331.54
$156.52
Research grade
NeutralAristarkh Safonov at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Aristarkh Safonovavg 16.1¢ | $50.14 | $175.93 | +$125.79 | 48% 8863-9449 (18312) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100 | Digvijay Pratap Singhavg 75.3¢ | $130.46 | $86.2 | -$40.33 | 59% 30644-21353 (51997) |
| └ Digvijay Pratap Singh leg | Digvijay Pratap Singhavg 75.3¢ | $118.46 | $64.53 | -$50 | |
| └ Aristarkh Safonov leg | Aristarkh Safonovavg 32.7¢ | $12 | $21.67 | +$9.67 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Aristarkh Safonovavg 16¢ | $17.06 | $48.46 | +$31.73 | 48% 1050-1155 (2205) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100 | Digvijay Pratap Singhavg 38¢ | $19 | $18 | -$1 | 54% 8289-6974 (15263) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Aristarkh Safonovavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.95 | +$0 | 86% 5846-989 (6835) |
Invested
$50.14
Value
$175.93
PnL
+$125.79
Record
48%
8863-9449 (18312)
Invested
$130.46
Value
$86.2
PnL
-$40.33
Record
59%
30644-21353 (51997)
Both legs:
Invested
$17.06
Value
$48.46
PnL
+$31.73
Record
48%
1050-1155 (2205)
Invested
$19
Value
$18
PnL
-$1
Record
54%
8289-6974 (15263)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0
Record
86%
5846-989 (6835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.