M15 Fergana: Digvijay Pratap Singh vs Dmitry Bessonov

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Digvijay Pratap Singh (40%) · Digvijay Pratap Singh at 100¢ · $312 held · ends Nov 6

Digvijay Pratap Singh>99¢Dmitry Bessonov<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Digvijay Pratap Singh

Consensus Traders

Digvijay Pratap Singh 40%

Total Value

$311.8

Combined PnL

-$13.9

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDigvijay Pratap Singh at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Digvijay Pratap Singh

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Digvijay Pratap Singh100%

Dmitry Bessonov0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Digvijay Pratap Singh2 traders

Total Value$276.42

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$7.88

Dmitry Bessonov3 traders

Total Value$35.39

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$6.02

Digvijay Pratap Singh — 40%Dmitry Bessonov — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Digvijay Pratap Singhavg 81¢	$196.88	$212.63	+$15.75	59% 30350-21049 (51399)
38 38791873984189<$100	Digvijay Pratap Singhavg 82.9¢	$87.42	$63.79	-$23.63	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Dmitry Bessonovavg 17¢	$29.24	$25.78	-$3.47	39% 3159-4962 (8121)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Dmitry Bessonovavg 16¢	$8.28	$6.47	-$1.81	49% 18955-19375 (38330)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dmitry Bessonovavg 13¢	$3.88	$3.14	-$0.74	48% 727-780 (1507)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Digvijay Pratap Singh

Invested

$196.88

Value

$212.63

PnL

+$15.75

Record

59%

30350-21049 (51399)

38791873984189<$100

Digvijay Pratap Singh

Invested

$87.42

Value

$63.79

PnL

-$23.63

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Dmitry Bessonov

Invested

$29.24

Value

$25.78

PnL

-$3.47

Record

39%

3159-4962 (8121)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Dmitry Bessonov

Invested

$8.28

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$1.81

Record

49%

18955-19375 (38330)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dmitry Bessonov

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.74

Record

48%

727-780 (1507)

Research grade

NeutralDigvijay Pratap Singh at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Digvijay Pratap Singh

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Digvijay Pratap Singh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.