M15 Heraklion: Josip Simundza vs Robert Guna

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Josip Simundza (78%) · Josip Simundza at 82¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Josip Simundza82¢Robert Guna18¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Josip Simundza

Consensus Traders

Josip Simundza 78%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$88.14

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 81.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJosip Simundza at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Josip Simundza

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Josip Simundza82%

Robert Guna19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Josip Simundza7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,107

Combined PnL+$82.54

Robert Guna2 traders

Total Value$251.93

Total Shares560

Combined PnL+$5.6

Josip Simundza — 78%Robert Guna — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CandleHammerDrums	Josip Simundzaavg 85.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$31.33	49% 613-640 (1253)
NO NotJump	Josip Simundzaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$985	+$10	50% 1082-1078 (2160)
SL SlickRick123	Josip Simundzaavg 84¢	$883.32	$914.87	+$31.55	37% 475-808 (1283)
poshposh	Josip Simundzaavg 85¢	$255	$261	+$6	49% 1298-1372 (2670)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Robert Gunaavg 44¢	$230.05	$235.28	+$5.23	56% 636-504 (1140)
38 38791873984189	Josip Simundzaavg 86.3¢	$163.91	$165.3	+$1.39	48% 3894-4243 (8137)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Josip Simundzaavg 84.9¢	$97.6	$100.05	+$2.45	45% 446-545 (991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Robert Gunaavg 44¢	$16.28	$16.65	+$0.37	50% 2137-2158 (4295)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Josip Simundzaavg 56¢	$10	$9.82	-$0.18	48% 215-232 (447)

CandleHammerDrums

Josip Simundza

Invested

$2,059.19

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$31.33

Record

49%

613-640 (1253)

NotJump

Josip Simundza

Invested

$1,050

Value

$985

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

1082-1078 (2160)

SlickRick123

Josip Simundza

Invested

$883.32

Value

$914.87

PnL

+$31.55

Record

37%

475-808 (1283)

poshposh

Josip Simundza

Invested

$255

Value

$261

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

1298-1372 (2670)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Robert Guna

Invested

$230.05

Value

$235.28

PnL

+$5.23

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

38791873984189

Josip Simundza

Invested

$163.91

Value

$165.3

PnL

+$1.39

Record

48%

3894-4243 (8137)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Josip Simundza

Invested

$97.6

Value

$100.05

PnL

+$2.45

Record

45%

446-545 (991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Robert Guna

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

2137-2158 (4295)

glennyorkshire<$100

Josip Simundza

Invested

$10

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

215-232 (447)

Research grade

NeutralJosip Simundza at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Josip Simundza

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Josip Simundza wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.