Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sara Saito, while the market favors Madison Sieg (55%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W75 Toronto: Madison Sieg vs Sara Saito
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sara Saito (33%) · Sara Saito at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Sara Saito
3
Sara Saito 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$599.58
Research grade
NeutralSara Saito at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Madison Sieg 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Sara Saitoavg 77.6¢ | $1.5K | $896.94 | -$648.82 | 54% 56041-48162 (104203) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Sara Saitoavg 57.9¢ | $469.11 | $460.94 | +$2.07 | 58% 41225-29890 (71115) |
| └ Madison Sieg leg | Madison Siegavg 40.9¢ | $184.27 | $247.51 | +$63.49 | |
| └ Sara Saito leg | Sara Saitoavg 57.9¢ | $274.85 | $213.43 | -$61.42 | |
TH thestingsnake | Madison Siegavg 43.5¢ | $238.74 | $213.21 | +$49.64 | 60% 3999-2689 (6688) |
78 0x7860...ab46<$100 | Madison Siegavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $5.5 | -$0.4 | — |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,545.76
Value
$896.94
PnL
-$648.82
Record
54%
56041-48162 (104203)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$469.11
Value
$460.94
PnL
+$2.07
Record
58%
41225-29890 (71115)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.74
Value
$213.21
PnL
+$49.64
Record
60%
3999-2689 (6688)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.