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Alyssa ReguerAlyssa ReguerMaria ShmelevaMaria ShmelevaMaria Shmeleva
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Maria Shmeleva — but Alyssa Reguer won instead.
W15 Sharm ElSheikh: Maria Shmeleva vs Alyssa Reguer
Resolved Alyssa Reguer. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Maria Shmeleva. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Maria Shmeleva 60%
Total Value
$55.52
Combined PnL
$2.2
Smart Money Signal
Maria Shmeleva
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Maria Shmeleva0%
Alyssa Reguer100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Alyssa Reguer2 traders
Total Value$55.52
Total Shares56
Combined PnL+$7.21
Maria Shmeleva3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares55
Combined PnL-$5.01
Alyssa Reguer — 40%Maria Shmeleva — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US User7429<$100 | Alyssa Regueravg 94.8¢ | $30.07 | $31.71 | +$1.64 | 34% 201-395 (596) |
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100 | Alyssa Regueravg 76.6¢ | $18.24 | $23.82 | +$5.58 | 48% 335-369 (704) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Maria Shmelevaavg 10.6¢ | $3.66 | — | -$3.66 | 37% 534-922 (1456) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Maria Shmelevaavg 4.9¢ | $0.74 | — | -$0.74 | 33% 302-622 (924) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Maria Shmelevaavg 12¢ | $0.61 | — | -$0.61 | 51% 2067-1978 (4045) |
US
User7429<$100Invested
$30.07
Value
$31.71
PnL
+$1.64
Record
34%
201-395 (596)
CA
CandleHammerDrums<$100Invested
$18.24
Value
$23.82
PnL
+$5.58
Record
48%
335-369 (704)
TO
topdogbigboiCTR<$100Invested
$3.66
Value
—
PnL
-$3.66
Record
37%
534-922 (1456)
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100Invested
$0.74
Value
—
PnL
-$0.74
Record
33%
302-622 (924)
KE
keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
51%
2067-1978 (4045)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x900c8304...f86df1
Slug
itf-shmele1-reguer1-2026-11-12