Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Anna Shkutova, while the market favors Chenting Zhu (97%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Monastir: Anna Shkutova vs Chenting Zhu
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Shkutova (75%) · Anna Shkutova at 3.0¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Anna Shkutova
4
Anna Shkutova 75%
$66.66
-$17.92
Research grade
AvoidAnna Shkutova at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Chenting Zhu 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Chenting Zhuavg 27.1¢ | $15.35 | $43.58 | +$28.91 | 48% 752-809 (1561) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Anna Shkutovaavg 56¢ | $14 | $9 | -$5 | 86% 5075-857 (5932) |
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100 | Anna Shkutovaavg 76.5¢ | $17.07 | $8.03 | -$9.04 | 61% 1763-1117 (2880) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Anna Shkutovaavg 85¢ | $38.85 | $6.05 | -$32.8 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
Invested
$15.35
Value
$43.58
PnL
+$28.91
Record
48%
752-809 (1561)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$14
Value
$9
PnL
-$5
Record
86%
5075-857 (5932)
Invested
$17.07
Value
$8.03
PnL
-$9.04
Record
61%
1763-1117 (2880)
Invested
$38.85
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$32.8
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.