Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ena Shibahara, while the market favors Mutsumi Uemura (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
W50 Yokohama: Ena Shibahara vs Mutsumi Uemura
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ena Shibahara (40%) · Ena Shibahara at 46¢ · $371 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Ena Shibahara
5
Ena Shibahara 40%
$371.3
-$25.2
48.2¢ → 45.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEna Shibahara at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Mutsumi Uemura 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Ena Shibahara. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Mutsumi Uemuraavg 55¢ | $94.79 | $115.75 | +$20.96 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Ena Shibaharaavg 44.8¢ | $112.36 | $81.45 | -$30.91 | 21% 73-279 (352) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Mutsumi Uemuraavg 53.8¢ | $72.04 | $73.6 | +$1.55 | 49% 65-68 (133) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Mutsumi Uemuraavg 55¢ | $59.86 | $64.06 | +$4.2 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Ena Shibaharaavg 57.9¢ | $57.44 | $36.45 | -$20.99 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
Invested
$94.79
Value
$115.75
PnL
+$20.96
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
Invested
$112.36
Value
$81.45
PnL
-$30.91
Record
21%
73-279 (352)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$72.04
Value
$73.6
PnL
+$1.55
Record
49%
65-68 (133)
Invested
$59.86
Value
$64.06
PnL
+$4.2
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$57.44
Value
$36.45
PnL
-$20.99
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.