Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Anton Shepp, while the market favors Blake Ellis (81%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M25 Tamworth: Anton Shepp vs Blake Ellis
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Anton Shepp (57%) · Anton Shepp at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Anton Shepp
7
Anton Shepp 57%
$1.9K
-$439.29
66.1¢ → 19.5¢
-70% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidAnton Shepp at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Blake Ellis 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 01258787xy48487484545122CTR | Anton Sheppavg 66.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$487.3 | 63% 263-152 (415) |
 poshposh | Blake Ellisavg 32.4¢ | $113.49 | $261 | +$147.51 | 59% 9732-6717 (16449) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Anton Sheppavg 60.1¢ | $201.73 | $156.02 | -$45.7 | 49% 18867-19279 (38146) |
 RN1 | Blake Ellisavg 55.9¢ | $153.06 | $147.29 | -$5.77 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Anton Sheppavg 67¢ | $155.65 | $108.05 | -$47.6 | 58% 5799-4256 (10055) |
US User7429<$100 | Blake Ellisavg 53¢ | $64.35 | $64.96 | +$0.61 | 55% 8185-6600 (14785) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Anton Sheppavg 43¢ | $3.7 | $2.65 | -$1.04 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
Invested
$1,599.24
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$487.3
Record
63%
263-152 (415)
poshposhInvested
$113.49
Value
$261
PnL
+$147.51
Record
59%
9732-6717 (16449)
Invested
$201.73
Value
$156.02
PnL
-$45.7
Record
49%
18867-19279 (38146)
RN1Invested
$153.06
Value
$147.29
PnL
-$5.77
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Invested
$155.65
Value
$108.05
PnL
-$47.6
Record
58%
5799-4256 (10055)
Invested
$64.35
Value
$64.96
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
8185-6600 (14785)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$1.04
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.