Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold David Eichenseher, while the market favors Grigory Shebekin (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Fergana: Grigory Shebekin vs David Eichenseher

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold David Eichenseher (60%) · David Eichenseher at 33¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 6

Grigory Shebekin68¢David Eichenseher32¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

David Eichenseher

Consensus Traders

David Eichenseher 60%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$10.0K

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 32.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDavid Eichenseher at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

David Eichenseher

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Grigory Shebekin 68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grigory Shebekin68%

David Eichenseher33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

David Eichenseher3 traders

Total Value$30.6K

Total Shares64,050

Combined PnL+$10.0K

Grigory Shebekin2 traders

Total Value$481.87

Total Shares947

Combined PnL+$6.03

David Eichenseher — 60%Grigory Shebekin — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA kalmalCTR	David Eichenseheravg 31.1¢	$18.9K	$28.7K	+$10.3K	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1dARB<$100	Grigory Shebekinavg 61.9¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$131.34	87% 20-3 (23)
└ Grigory Shebekin leg	Grigory Shebekinavg 61.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$27
└ David Eichenseher leg	David Eichenseheravg 40.1¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$158.34
poshposhCTR	David Eichenseheravg 50.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$389.9	59% 9885-6859 (16744)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	David Eichenseheravg 43.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$215.96	39% 3159-4962 (8121)
└ Grigory Shebekin leg	Grigory Shebekinavg 40.5¢	$526	$877.5	+$351.5
└ David Eichenseher leg	David Eichenseheravg 43.5¢	$536.08	$400.54	-$135.54
US User7429ARB<$100	David Eichenseheravg 52.5¢	$667.62	$739.01	+$71.39	55% 8228-6643 (14871)
└ David Eichenseher leg	David Eichenseheravg 52.5¢	$475.88	$493.95	+$18.07
└ Grigory Shebekin leg	Grigory Shebekinavg 35.6¢	$191.74	$245.06	+$53.32
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	David Eichenseheravg 47.8¢	$1.7K	$540.13	-$315.43	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
└ David Eichenseher leg	David Eichenseheravg 47.8¢	$316.85	$361.41	+$43.79
└ Grigory Shebekin leg	Grigory Shebekinavg 69.2¢	$271.67	$178.71	-$359.22
0X 0x1111111111ARB<$100	Grigory Shebekinavg 58.4¢	$553.61	$505.76	-$47.85	61% 1761-1112 (2873)
└ Grigory Shebekin leg	Grigory Shebekinavg 58.4¢	$304.23	$294.1	-$10.13
└ David Eichenseher leg	David Eichenseheravg 51.3¢	$249.38	$211.66	-$37.72
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Grigory Shebekinavg 56.7¢	$287.28	$294.9	+$7.63	48% 727-780 (1507)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	David Eichenseheravg 52.5¢	$300.5	$281	-$19.5	54% 7994-6689 (14683)
└ David Eichenseher leg	David Eichenseheravg 52.5¢	$210	$162	-$48
└ Grigory Shebekin leg	Grigory Shebekinavg 45.3¢	$90.5	$119	+$28.5
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	David Eichenseheravg 41¢	$212.15	$225.03	+$12.88	59% 30350-21049 (51399)
OM omnibus-076daa	Grigory Shebekinavg 41.9¢	$188.56	$186.96	-$1.6	49% 18955-19375 (38330)

kalmalCTR

David Eichenseher

Invested

$18,947.9

Value

$28.7K

PnL

+$10.3K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1dARB<$100

Grigory Shebekin

Invested

$5,279.89

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$131.34

Record

87%

20-3 (23)

Both legs:

Grigory Shebekin$2,653.1561.9¢+$27

David Eichenseher$2,600.6640.1¢-$158.34

poshposhCTR

David Eichenseher

Invested

$2,042.29

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$389.9

Record

59%

9885-6859 (16744)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

David Eichenseher

Invested

$1,062.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$215.96

Record

39%

3159-4962 (8121)

Both legs:

Grigory Shebekin$52640.5¢+$351.5

David Eichenseher$536.0843.5¢-$135.54

User7429ARB<$100

David Eichenseher

Invested

$667.62

Value

$739.01

PnL

+$71.39

Record

55%

8228-6643 (14871)

Both legs:

David Eichenseher$475.8852.5¢+$18.07

Grigory Shebekin$191.7435.6¢+$53.32

38791873984189ARB<$100

David Eichenseher

Invested

$1,723.43

Value

$540.13

PnL

-$315.43

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

Both legs:

David Eichenseher$316.8547.8¢+$43.79

Grigory Shebekin$271.6769.2¢-$359.22

0x1111111111ARB<$100

Grigory Shebekin

Invested

$553.61

Value

$505.76

PnL

-$47.85

Record

61%

1761-1112 (2873)

Both legs:

Grigory Shebekin$304.2358.4¢-$10.13

David Eichenseher$249.3851.3¢-$37.72

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Grigory Shebekin

Invested

$287.28

Value

$294.9

PnL

+$7.63

Record

48%

727-780 (1507)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

David Eichenseher

Invested

$300.5

Value

$281

PnL

-$19.5

Record

54%

7994-6689 (14683)

Both legs:

David Eichenseher$21052.5¢-$48

Grigory Shebekin$90.545.3¢+$28.5

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

David Eichenseher

Invested

$212.15

Value

$225.03

PnL

+$12.88

Record

59%

30350-21049 (51399)

omnibus-076daa

Grigory Shebekin

Invested

$188.56

Value

$186.96

PnL

-$1.6

Record

49%

18955-19375 (38330)

Research grade

NeutralDavid Eichenseher at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

David Eichenseher

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Grigory Shebekin 68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that David Eichenseher wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.