Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nuria Brancaccio, while the market favors Raluca Georgiana Serban (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W50 Heraklion: Raluca Georgiana Serban vs Nuria Brancaccio
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nuria Brancaccio (63%) · Nuria Brancaccio at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Nuria Brancaccio
8
Nuria Brancaccio 63%
$5.6K
$2.2K
31.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuria Brancaccio at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Raluca Georgiana Serban 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Nuria Brancaccioavg 32.2¢ | $2.1K | $4.5K | +$2.4K | 46% 1788-2098 (3886) |
LO looppau | Raluca Georgiana Serbanavg 99.9¢ | $631.66 | $631.97 | +$0.32 | 99% 12958-107 (13065) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Nuria Brancaccioavg 23.2¢ | $146.16 | $224.04 | +$153.31 | 60% 4506-3007 (7513) |
 alpheclabs2 | Raluca Georgiana Serbanavg 97¢ | $322.53 | $99.75 | -$222.78 | 47% 1363-1536 (2899) |
0F 0x0f76...dcc9 | Raluca Georgiana Serbanavg 99¢ | $188.19 | $57 | -$131.19 | — |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Nuria Brancaccioavg 22.3¢ | $7.8 | $24.5 | +$16.7 | 64% 5376-2994 (8370) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Nuria Brancaccioavg 68.4¢ | $18.95 | $20.28 | +$1.33 | 54% 6325-5389 (11714) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Nuria Brancaccioavg 53.2¢ | $5.12 | $6.73 | +$1.61 | 59% 33219-23387 (56606) |
Invested
$2,085.81
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
46%
1788-2098 (3886)
Invested
$631.66
Value
$631.97
PnL
+$0.32
Record
99%
12958-107 (13065)
Invested
$146.16
Value
$224.04
PnL
+$153.31
Record
60%
4506-3007 (7513)
alpheclabs2Invested
$322.53
Value
$99.75
PnL
-$222.78
Record
47%
1363-1536 (2899)
Invested
$188.19
Value
$57
PnL
-$131.19
Record
—
Invested
$7.8
Value
$24.5
PnL
+$16.7
Record
64%
5376-2994 (8370)
Invested
$18.95
Value
$20.28
PnL
+$1.33
Record
54%
6325-5389 (11714)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$6.73
PnL
+$1.61
Record
59%
33219-23387 (56606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRNuria Brancaccio — $4.5K
looppau
Raluca Georgiana Serban — $631.97
thestingsnake
CTRNuria Brancaccio — $224.04
alpheclabs2
Raluca Georgiana Serban — $99.75
0x0f76...dcc9
Raluca Georgiana Serban — $57
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
CTRNuria Brancaccio — $24.5
Eulhunter
CTRNuria Brancaccio — $20.28
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRNuria Brancaccio — $6.73