Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eva Maria Ionescu, while the market favors Karlin Schock (78%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 Lincoln, NE: Karlin Schock vs Eva Maria Ionescu

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Eva Maria Ionescu (38%) · Eva Maria Ionescu at 23¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Karlin Schock78¢Eva Maria Ionescu22¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Eva Maria Ionescu

Consensus Traders

Eva Maria Ionescu 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$26.88

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 22.5¢

-45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidEva Maria Ionescu at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eva Maria Ionescu

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Karlin Schock 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Karlin Schock78%

Eva Maria Ionescu23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eva Maria Ionescu3 traders

Total Value$181.44

Total Shares565

Combined PnL-$49.43

Karlin Schock5 traders

Total Value$358.52

Total Shares575

Combined PnL+$76.31

Eva Maria Ionescu — 38%Karlin Schock — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Eva Maria Ionescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Eva Maria Ionescu) and the top 1000 (7 on Karlin Schock) disagree here.

sharpEva Maria Ionescu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKarlin Schock 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedEva Maria Ionescu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Karlin Schock 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Eva Maria Ionescuavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$10.5	54% 475-399 (874)
└ Karlin Schock leg	Karlin Schockavg 50¢	$525	$756	+$231
└ Eva Maria Ionescu leg	Eva Maria Ionescuavg 50¢	$525	$283.5	-$241.5
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Eva Maria Ionescuavg 36.6¢	$152.6	$114.58	-$38.02	33% 320-651 (971)
38 38791873984189	Karlin Schockavg 68.8¢	$436.99	$98.55	-$49.3	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Karlin Schockavg 19¢	$23.21	$87.94	+$64.73	36% 209-370 (579)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Karlin Schockavg 60¢	$71.08	$78.41	+$7.33	42% 291-408 (699)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Karlin Schockavg 32¢	$32.43	$72.97	+$40.54	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Eva Maria Ionescuavg 35¢	$34.27	$53.36	+$19.09	48% 350-384 (734)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Karlin Schockavg 26.7¢	$7.65	$20.66	+$13.01	52% 192-174 (366)
BasquetipsterCTR<$100	Eva Maria Ionescuavg 88¢	$44	$13.5	-$30.5	11% 10-81 (91)

NotJumpARB<$100

Eva Maria Ionescu

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Both legs:

Karlin Schock$52550¢+$231

Eva Maria Ionescu$52550¢-$241.5

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Eva Maria Ionescu

Invested

$152.6

Value

$114.58

PnL

-$38.02

Record

33%

320-651 (971)

38791873984189

Karlin Schock

Invested

$436.99

Value

$98.55

PnL

-$49.3

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

LuckyLoo<$100

Karlin Schock

Invested

$23.21

Value

$87.94

PnL

+$64.73

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Karlin Schock

Invested

$71.08

Value

$78.41

PnL

+$7.33

Record

42%

291-408 (699)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Karlin Schock

Invested

$32.43

Value

$72.97

PnL

+$40.54

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Eva Maria Ionescu

Invested

$34.27

Value

$53.36

PnL

+$19.09

Record

48%

350-384 (734)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Karlin Schock

Invested

$7.65

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$13.01

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

BasquetipsterCTR<$100

Eva Maria Ionescu

Invested

$44

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$30.5

Record

11%

10-81 (91)

Research grade

AvoidEva Maria Ionescu at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Eva Maria Ionescu

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Karlin Schock 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Eva Maria Ionescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Eva Maria Ionescu) and the top 1000 (7 on Karlin Schock) disagree here.

sharpEva Maria Ionescu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKarlin Schock 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedEva Maria Ionescu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Karlin Schock 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eva Maria Ionescu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.