Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Viktor Frydrych — but Mathieu Scaglia won instead.

M15 Monastir: Mathieu Scaglia vs Viktor Frydrych

Resolved Mathieu Scaglia. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Viktor Frydrych. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Viktor Frydrych 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$93.84

Combined PnL

$62.55

Viktor Frydrych

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Mathieu Scaglia100%

Viktor Frydrych0%

Mathieu Scaglia1 trader

Total Value$66

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$69.03

Viktor Frydrych4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$6.48

Mathieu Scaglia — 20%Viktor Frydrych — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Mathieu Scagliaavg 56.4¢	$184.51	$66	+$69.03	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Viktor Frydrychavg 26¢	$51.37	$27.84	-$23.53	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
└ Viktor Frydrych leg	Viktor Frydrychavg 26¢	$36.06	—	-$36.06
└ Mathieu Scaglia leg	Mathieu Scagliaavg 55¢	$15.31	$27.84	+$12.53
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Viktor Frydrychavg 12¢	$3.09	—	-$3.09	37% 527-909 (1436)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Viktor Frydrychavg 25¢	$2.54	—	-$2.54	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Viktor Frydrychavg 16¢	$0.8	—	-$0.8	32% 294-619 (913)
NO NotJumpCTR	Viktor Frydrychavg 50¢	$1.1K	—	-$0.05	54% 428-364 (792)