W35 Sydney: Hikaru Sato vs Renee Alame
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hikaru Sato (17%) · Hikaru Sato at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Hikaru Sato
6
Hikaru Sato 17%
$3.1K
-$81.97
Research grade
NeutralHikaru Sato at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Hikaru Satoavg 81¢ | $2.9K | $2.7K | -$143.77 | 70% 30-13 (43) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Renee Alameavg 19¢ | $213.74 | $258.74 | +$45 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Renee Alameavg 16.1¢ | $30.44 | $43.53 | +$13.1 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Renee Alameavg 5.9¢ | $1.88 | $4.46 | +$2.58 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Renee Alameavg 18.7¢ | $3.61 | $4.43 | +$0.82 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Renee Alameavg 18¢ | $1.08 | $1.38 | +$0.3 | 59% 9444-6437 (15881) |
Invested
$2,891.24
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$143.77
Record
70%
30-13 (43)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$213.74
Value
$258.74
PnL
+$45
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$30.44
Value
$43.53
PnL
+$13.1
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.88
Value
$4.46
PnL
+$2.58
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$3.61
Value
$4.43
PnL
+$0.82
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.3
Record
59%
9444-6437 (15881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.