Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Leonie Schuknecht, while the market favors Laetitia Sarrazin (100%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W15 Paris: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Leonie Schuknecht

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Leonie Schuknecht (83%) · Leonie Schuknecht at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Laetitia Sarrazin>99¢Leonie Schuknecht<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Leonie Schuknecht

Consensus Traders

Leonie Schuknecht 83%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$660.3

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidLeonie Schuknecht at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leonie Schuknecht

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Laetitia Sarrazin 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Laetitia Sarrazin100%

Leonie Schuknecht0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leonie Schuknecht10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,999

Combined PnL-$684.22

Laetitia Sarrazin2 traders

Total Value$89.05

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$23.93

Leonie Schuknecht — 83%Laetitia Sarrazin — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Leonie Schuknecht. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLeonie Schuknecht 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Leonie Schuknecht 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Leonie Schuknechtavg 50¢	$1.1K	$903	-$147	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
poshposhCTR	Leonie Schuknechtavg 36.2¢	$141.68	$75.2	-$66.48	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Laetitia Sarrazinavg 71.9¢	$39.92	$53.05	+$13.13	41% 739-1047 (1786)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Leonie Schuknechtavg 27.5¢	$188.73	$41.21	-$147.52	48% 638-680 (1318)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Laetitia Sarrazinavg 56¢	$25.2	$36	+$10.8	46% 643-756 (1399)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Leonie Schuknechtavg 21.8¢	$69.99	$24.64	-$45.35	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Leonie Schuknechtavg 43¢	$180.66	$22.75	-$142.91	46% 479-565 (1044)
dips.CTR<$100	Leonie Schuknechtavg 47.4¢	$77.72	$9.84	-$67.88	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Leonie Schuknechtavg 23¢	$11.5	$3	-$8.5	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Leonie Schuknechtavg 58¢	$23.78	$2.46	-$21.32	38% 496-823 (1319)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Leonie Schuknechtavg 30¢	$6	$1.2	-$4.8	46% 882-1039 (1921)
CI cigarettesCTR	Leonie Schuknechtavg 50.6¢	$137.09	$0.8	-$32.47	53% 7499-6626 (14125)

NotJumpCTR

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$1,050

Value

$903

PnL

-$147

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

poshposhCTR

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$141.68

Value

$75.2

PnL

-$66.48

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Laetitia Sarrazin

Invested

$39.92

Value

$53.05

PnL

+$13.13

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$188.73

Value

$41.21

PnL

-$147.52

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Laetitia Sarrazin

Invested

$25.2

Value

$36

PnL

+$10.8

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$69.99

Value

$24.64

PnL

-$45.35

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$180.66

Value

$22.75

PnL

-$142.91

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

dips.CTR<$100

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$77.72

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$67.88

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$11.5

Value

PnL

-$8.5

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$23.78

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$21.32

Record

38%

496-823 (1319)

smithagentCTR<$100

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$4.8

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

cigarettesCTR

Leonie Schuknecht

Invested

$137.09

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$32.47

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

Research grade

AvoidLeonie Schuknecht at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Leonie Schuknecht

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Laetitia Sarrazin 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Leonie Schuknecht. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLeonie Schuknecht 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Leonie Schuknecht 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leonie Schuknecht wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.