W15 São Carlos: Sophia Santos vs Kauany Rodrigues
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kauany Rodrigues (75%) · Kauany Rodrigues at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Kauany Rodrigues
4
Kauany Rodrigues 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
$136.55
81.3¢ → 95.5¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKauany Rodrigues at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Kauany Rodrigues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Kauany Rodriguesavg 81.2¢ | $939.92 | $912.44 | +$158.31 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
CI cigarettesARB<$100 | Sophia Santosavg 43.9¢ | $668.75 | $305.59 | -$363.16 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
| └ Kauany Rodrigues leg | Kauany Rodriguesavg 87.7¢ | $192.05 | $197.1 | +$5.05 | |
| └ Sophia Santos leg | Sophia Santosavg 43.9¢ | $476.7 | $108.49 | -$368.21 | |
 dips.ARB<$100 | Sophia Santosavg 40.5¢ | $410.8 | $135.97 | -$274.83 | 42% 189-265 (454) |
| └ Sophia Santos leg | Sophia Santosavg 40.5¢ | $372.61 | $91.91 | -$280.7 | |
| └ Kauany Rodrigues leg | Kauany Rodriguesavg 78¢ | $38.19 | $44.07 | +$5.88 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Kauany Rodriguesavg 83.7¢ | $21.9 | $25.07 | +$7 | 23% 87-297 (384) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Sophia Santosavg 31.3¢ | $42.84 | $13.7 | -$29.14 | 50% 138-137 (275) |
US User7429<$100 | Kauany Rodriguesavg 82.4¢ | $4.12 | $4.5 | +$0.38 | 16% 59-314 (373) |
Invested
$939.92
Value
$912.44
PnL
+$158.31
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$668.75
Value
$305.59
PnL
-$363.16
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Both legs:
dips.ARB<$100Invested
$410.8
Value
$135.97
PnL
-$274.83
Record
42%
189-265 (454)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.9
Value
$25.07
PnL
+$7
Record
23%
87-297 (384)
Invested
$42.84
Value
$13.7
PnL
-$29.14
Record
50%
138-137 (275)
Invested
$4.12
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0.38
Record
16%
59-314 (373)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.