Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sandra Samir, while the market favors Ksenia Meshcheryakova (54%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

W15 Sharm ElSheikh: Sandra Samir vs Ksenia Meshcheryakova

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sandra Samir (89%) · Sandra Samir at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Sandra Samir46¢Ksenia Meshcheryakova54¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sandra Samir

Consensus Traders

Sandra Samir 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$887.13

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 46¢

-20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSandra Samir at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sandra Samir

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Ksenia Meshcheryakova 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sandra Samir46%

Ksenia Meshcheryakova54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sandra Samir8 traders

Total Value$573.75

Total Shares2,550

Combined PnL-$888.51

Ksenia Meshcheryakova1 trader

Total Value$3.88

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$1.38

Sandra Samir — 89%Ksenia Meshcheryakova — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Sandra Samir. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSandra Samir 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Sandra Samir 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Ksenia Meshcheryakovaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$21	54% 421-356 (777)
└ Ksenia Meshcheryakova leg	Ksenia Meshcheryakovaavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0
└ Sandra Samir leg	Sandra Samiravg 50¢	$525	$504	-$21
38 38791873984189CTR	Sandra Samiravg 60.8¢	$468.61	$173.39	-$295.22	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
dips.CTR	Sandra Samiravg 55.7¢	$400.8	$162	-$238.8	45% 519-642 (1161)
poshposhCTR	Sandra Samiravg 58.7¢	$350.51	$134.46	-$216.05	47% 507-572 (1079)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Sandra Samiravg 52¢	$115.99	$50.19	-$65.8	47% 325-363 (688)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sandra Samiravg 53.7¢	$92.32	$38.66	-$53.67	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Sandra Samiravg 50¢	$25	$11.25	-$13.75	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Ksenia Meshcheryakovaavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.88	+$1.38	32% 289-611 (900)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Sandra Samiravg 54¢	$8.1	$3.38	-$4.73	41% 244-358 (602)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sandra Samiravg 48¢	$0.92	$0.43	-$0.49	37% 524-900 (1424)

NotJumpARB<$100

Ksenia Meshcheryakova

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$21

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

Both legs:

Ksenia Meshcheryakova$52550¢+$0

Sandra Samir$52550¢-$21

38791873984189CTR

Sandra Samir

Invested

$468.61

Value

$173.39

PnL

-$295.22

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

dips.CTR

Sandra Samir

Invested

$400.8

Value

$162

PnL

-$238.8

Record

45%

519-642 (1161)

poshposhCTR

Sandra Samir

Invested

$350.51

Value

$134.46

PnL

-$216.05

Record

47%

507-572 (1079)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Sandra Samir

Invested

$115.99

Value

$50.19

PnL

-$65.8

Record

47%

325-363 (688)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sandra Samir

Invested

$92.32

Value

$38.66

PnL

-$53.67

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Sandra Samir

Invested

$25

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$13.75

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Ksenia Meshcheryakova

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$1.38

Record

32%

289-611 (900)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Sandra Samir

Invested

$8.1

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$4.73

Record

41%

244-358 (602)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sandra Samir

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.49

Record

37%

524-900 (1424)

Research grade

NeutralSandra Samir at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sandra Samir

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Ksenia Meshcheryakova 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Sandra Samir. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSandra Samir 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Sandra Samir 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sandra Samir wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.