W75 Brisbane: Himeno Sakatsume vs Yujia Huang

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Himeno Sakatsume (43%) · Himeno Sakatsume at 69¢ · $878 held · ends Nov 19

Himeno Sakatsume69¢Yujia Huang31¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Himeno Sakatsume

Consensus Traders

Himeno Sakatsume 43%

Total Value

$877.51

Combined PnL

$143.87

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHimeno Sakatsume at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Himeno Sakatsume

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Himeno Sakatsume69%

Yujia Huang32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Himeno Sakatsume3 traders

Total Value$565.93

Total Shares790

Combined PnL+$23.58

Yujia Huang4 traders

Total Value$311.58

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$120.29

Himeno Sakatsume — 43%Yujia Huang — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Himeno Sakatsumeavg 61¢	$370.7	$404.61	+$33.91	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yujia Huangavg 23¢	$130.3	$207.73	+$85.42	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
C4 0xc4fe...601f	Himeno Sakatsumeavg 88.8¢	$164.2	$154.77	-$9.43	—
7C 0x7c1e...bab3CTR<$100	Yujia Huangavg 19.1¢	$36.03	$46.31	+$10.27	—
C7 0xc785...4ef2CTR<$100	Yujia Huangavg 9.6¢	$11.52	$29.4	+$17.88	—
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Yujia Huangavg 14.8¢	$77.94	$28.14	+$6.71	27% 144-385 (529)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Himeno Sakatsumeavg 74.5¢	$7.45	$6.55	-$0.9	49% 118-121 (239)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Himeno Sakatsume

Invested

$370.7

Value

$404.61

PnL

+$33.91

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

38791873984189CTR

Yujia Huang

Invested

$130.3

Value

$207.73

PnL

+$85.42

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0xc4fe...601f

Himeno Sakatsume

Invested

$164.2

Value

$154.77

PnL

-$9.43

Record

—

0x7c1e...bab3CTR<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$36.03

Value

$46.31

PnL

+$10.27

Record

—

0xc785...4ef2CTR<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$11.52

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$17.88

Record

—

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Yujia Huang

Invested

$77.94

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$6.71

Record

27%

144-385 (529)

Eulhunter<$100

Himeno Sakatsume

Invested

$7.45

Value

$6.55

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

118-121 (239)

Research grade

NeutralHimeno Sakatsume at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Himeno Sakatsume

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Himeno Sakatsume wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.