M15 Fergana: Aristarkh Safonov vs Amir Omarkhanov

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Amir Omarkhanov (33%) · Amir Omarkhanov at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Aristarkh Safonov23¢Amir Omarkhanov77¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Amir Omarkhanov

Consensus Traders

Amir Omarkhanov 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$8.49

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 77.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAmir Omarkhanov at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Amir Omarkhanov

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aristarkh Safonov23%

Amir Omarkhanov78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Amir Omarkhanov2 traders

Total Value$823.95

Total Shares1,051

Combined PnL-$62.82

Aristarkh Safonov4 traders

Total Value$248.32

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL+$54.33

Amir Omarkhanov — 33%Aristarkh Safonov — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Amir Omarkhanovavg 83.4¢	$835.06	$775.74	-$59.32	59% 30459-21177 (51636)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Aristarkh Safonovavg 17.7¢	$154.53	$196.7	+$42.18	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
SF sfkjbsr457<$100	Amir Omarkhanovavg 80¢	$44.05	$48.21	-$3.5	54% 8135-6835 (14970)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Aristarkh Safonovavg 15.7¢	$33.33	$43.63	+$10.3	48% 912-980 (1892)
RN1CTR<$100	Aristarkh Safonovavg 11¢	$4.34	$5.91	+$1.58	54% 56561-48730 (105291)
poshposhCTR<$100	Aristarkh Safonovavg 13¢	$1.79	$2.07	+$0.28	59% 10125-7117 (17242)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Amir Omarkhanov

Invested

$835.06

Value

$775.74

PnL

-$59.32

Record

59%

30459-21177 (51636)

topdogbigboiCTR

Aristarkh Safonov

Invested

$154.53

Value

$196.7

PnL

+$42.18

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

sfkjbsr457<$100

Amir Omarkhanov

Invested

$44.05

Value

$48.21

PnL

-$3.5

Record

54%

8135-6835 (14970)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Aristarkh Safonov

Invested

$33.33

Value

$43.63

PnL

+$10.3

Record

48%

912-980 (1892)

RN1CTR<$100

Aristarkh Safonov

Invested

$4.34

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$1.58

Record

54%

56561-48730 (105291)

poshposhCTR<$100

Aristarkh Safonov

Invested

$1.79

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

10125-7117 (17242)

Research grade

NeutralAmir Omarkhanov at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Amir Omarkhanov

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Amir Omarkhanov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.