W100 New Braunfels, TX: Arantxa Rus vs Kristina Liutova
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kristina Liutova (50%) · Kristina Liutova at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Kristina Liutova
6
Kristina Liutova 50%
$11.9K
-$341.86
83.5¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKristina Liutova at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Kristina Liutovaavg 83¢ | $10.6K | $10.5K | -$179.67 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
 RN1 | Kristina Liutovaavg 90¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$168.69 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
TH thestingsnake | Kristina Liutovaavg 82.7¢ | $298.8 | $299.94 | +$1.14 | 60% 4006-2695 (6701) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Arantxa Rusavg 16¢ | $24.21 | $31.1 | +$6.9 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Arantxa Rusavg 17¢ | $20.05 | $18.87 | -$1.18 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100 | Arantxa Rusavg 21¢ | $5.04 | $4.68 | -$0.36 | 61% 1753-1105 (2858) |
Invested
$10,648.79
Value
$10.5K
PnL
-$179.67
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
RN1Invested
$1,200.54
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$168.69
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$298.8
Value
$299.94
PnL
+$1.14
Record
60%
4006-2695 (6701)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$24.21
Value
$31.1
PnL
+$6.9
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
Invested
$20.05
Value
$18.87
PnL
-$1.18
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$0.36
Record
61%
1753-1105 (2858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.