Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Leticia Romanova, while the market favors Jana Otzipka (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Petange: Leticia Romanova vs Jana Otzipka

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Leticia Romanova (57%) · Leticia Romanova at 0.1¢ · $34 held · ends Nov 8

Leticia Romanova<1¢Jana Otzipka>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Leticia Romanova

Consensus Traders

Leticia Romanova 57%

Total Value

$34.09

Combined PnL

-$56.68

Research grade

AvoidLeticia Romanova at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leticia Romanova

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Jana Otzipka 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leticia Romanova0%

Jana Otzipka100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jana Otzipka3 traders

Total Value$27.65

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$2.3

Leticia Romanova4 traders

Total Value$6.44

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$58.98

Jana Otzipka — 43%Leticia Romanova — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
US User7429<$100	Jana Otzipkaavg 59¢	$18.51	$20.24	+$1.73	55% 8417-6766 (15183)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Jana Otzipkaavg 87¢	$4.28	$4.28	+$0	55% 1781-1468 (3249)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Jana Otzipkaavg 71¢	$2.56	$3.13	+$0.58	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Leticia Romanovaavg 78¢	$15.6	$3.1	-$12.5	85% 5899-1010 (6909)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Leticia Romanovaavg 25¢	$4.2	$2.6	-$1.6	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
poshposhCTR<$100	Leticia Romanovaavg 14¢	$0.7	$0.65	-$0.05	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Leticia Romanovaavg 26.3¢	$44.92	$0.09	-$44.84	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

User7429<$100

Jana Otzipka

Invested

$18.51

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$1.73

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Jana Otzipka

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1781-1468 (3249)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Jana Otzipka

Invested

$2.56

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.58

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$15.6

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$12.5

Record

85%

5899-1010 (6909)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$4.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$1.6

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

poshposhCTR<$100

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$44.92

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$44.84

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

AvoidLeticia Romanova at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Leticia Romanova

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Jana Otzipka 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leticia Romanova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.