Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tanishk Konduri, while the market favors Andres Santamarta Roig (61%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Las Vegas, NV: Andres Santamarta Roig vs Tanishk Konduri

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Tanishk Konduri (57%) · Tanishk Konduri at 40¢ · $732 held · ends Nov 6

Andres Santamarta Roig61¢Tanishk Konduri39¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tanishk Konduri

Consensus Traders

Tanishk Konduri 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$731.96

Combined PnL

$45.83

Smart Money Entry

19.9¢ → 39.5¢

+99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTanishk Konduri at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tanishk Konduri

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Andres Santamarta Roig 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Andres Santamarta Roig61%

Tanishk Konduri40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tanishk Konduri4 traders

Total Value$262.17

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$92.66

Andres Santamarta Roig3 traders

Total Value$204.04

Total Shares442

Combined PnL-$46.83

Tanishk Konduri — 57%Andres Santamarta Roig — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Andres Santamarta Roigavg 75.3¢	$370.22	$265.75	-$104.47	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
└ Tanishk Konduri leg	Tanishk Konduriavg 61.4¢	$156.22	$159.14	+$2.92
└ Andres Santamarta Roig leg	Andres Santamarta Roigavg 75.3¢	$214.01	$106.61	-$107.39
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Tanishk Konduriavg 19¢	$156.37	$251.02	+$94.64	53% 3168-2789 (5957)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Andres Santamarta Roigavg 38¢	$86.03	$84.9	-$1.13	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
VeryLucky888	Andres Santamarta Roigavg 69¢	$143.12	$80.57	-$0.96	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
38 38791873984189<$100	Andres Santamarta Roigavg 75.7¢	$85.17	$38.58	-$44.75	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Tanishk Konduriavg 39¢	$8.69	$6.8	-$1.89	48% 765-826 (1591)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Tanishk Konduriavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.33	-$0.07	86% 5097-864 (5961)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Tanishk Konduriavg 40¢	$1.04	$1.03	-$0.01	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

RN1ARB<$100

Andres Santamarta Roig

Invested

$370.22

Value

$265.75

PnL

-$104.47

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

Both legs:

Tanishk Konduri$156.2261.4¢+$2.92

Andres Santamarta Roig$214.0175.3¢-$107.39

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Tanishk Konduri

Invested

$156.37

Value

$251.02

PnL

+$94.64

Record

53%

3168-2789 (5957)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Andres Santamarta Roig

Invested

$86.03

Value

$84.9

PnL

-$1.13

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

VeryLucky888

Andres Santamarta Roig

Invested

$143.12

Value

$80.57

PnL

-$0.96

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

38791873984189<$100

Andres Santamarta Roig

Invested

$85.17

Value

$38.58

PnL

-$44.75

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Tanishk Konduri

Invested

$8.69

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$1.89

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Tanishk Konduri

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

86%

5097-864 (5961)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Tanishk Konduri

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralTanishk Konduri at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tanishk Konduri

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Andres Santamarta Roig 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tanishk Konduri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.