M25 Norman, OK: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Giles Hussey

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Johan Alexander Rodriguez (60%) · Johan Alexander Rodriguez at 77¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 4

Johan Alexander Rodriguez77¢Giles Hussey23¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Consensus Traders

Johan Alexander Rodriguez 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$532.03

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 76.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJohan Alexander Rodriguez at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Johan Alexander Rodriguez77%

Giles Hussey24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Johan Alexander Rodriguez6 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,949

Combined PnL+$128.14

Giles Hussey4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,194

Combined PnL-$660.18

Johan Alexander Rodriguez — 60%Giles Hussey — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 44.2¢	$5.2K	$5.9K	+$639.9	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 80.2¢	$3.8K	$3.3K	-$505.2	67% 210-103 (313)
poshposhCTR	Giles Husseyavg 49.1¢	$1.6K	$997.15	-$556.02	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Giles Husseyavg 38.9¢	$477.05	$374.51	-$102.54	59% 30091-20813 (50904)
FO fortunekingCTR	Giles Husseyavg 37¢	$286.27	$282.4	-$3.87	59% 774-535 (1309)
RN1	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 62.9¢	$202.14	$203.98	+$1.84	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
BE berlinskies	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 84¢	$120	$112.14	-$7.86	58% 5761-4227 (9988)
US User7429ARB<$100	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 55¢	$57.98	$65.96	+$7.98	55% 8103-6544 (14647)
└ Johan Alexander Rodriguez leg	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 55¢	$40.7	$37.74	-$2.96
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 30¢	$17.28	$28.22	+$10.94
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 60¢	$25.16	$17.62	+$2.24	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
PA pauleta23<$100	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 84¢	$10	$9.82	-$0.18	67% 23108-11512 (34620)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Johan Alexander Rodriguezavg 39¢	$3.51	$3.15	-$0.36	59% 44610-31007 (75617)

omnibus-076daa

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$5,227.92

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$639.9

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$3,800

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$505.2

Record

67%

210-103 (313)

poshposhCTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,553.17

Value

$997.15

PnL

-$556.02

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$477.05

Value

$374.51

PnL

-$102.54

Record

59%

30091-20813 (50904)

fortunekingCTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$286.27

Value

$282.4

PnL

-$3.87

Record

59%

774-535 (1309)

RN1

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$202.14

Value

$203.98

PnL

+$1.84

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

berlinskies

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$120

Value

$112.14

PnL

-$7.86

Record

58%

5761-4227 (9988)

User7429ARB<$100

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$57.98

Value

$65.96

PnL

+$7.98

Record

55%

8103-6544 (14647)

Both legs:

Johan Alexander Rodriguez$40.755¢-$2.96

Giles Hussey$17.2830¢+$10.94

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$25.16

Value

$17.62

PnL

+$2.24

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

pauleta23<$100

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$10

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

67%

23108-11512 (34620)

UpTheBlues<$100

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.36

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Research grade

NeutralJohan Alexander Rodriguez at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Johan Alexander Rodriguez

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Johan Alexander Rodriguez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.