Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jerry Roddick, while the market favors Olaf Pieczkowski (54%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
M25 Las Vegas, NV: Jerry Roddick vs Olaf Pieczkowski
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Jerry Roddick (100%) · Jerry Roddick at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Jerry Roddick
3
Jerry Roddick 100%
$1.1K
$70.35
39.1¢ → 46¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJerry Roddick at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Olaf Pieczkowski 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jerry Roddickavg 39.2¢ | $613.11 | $693.97 | +$11.71 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Jerry Roddickavg 38.6¢ | $317.58 | $378.39 | +$60.81 | 47% 2368-2640 (5008) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Jerry Roddickavg 44¢ | $13.65 | $11.79 | -$2.17 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$613.11
Value
$693.97
PnL
+$11.71
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$317.58
Value
$378.39
PnL
+$60.81
Record
47%
2368-2640 (5008)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$13.65
Value
$11.79
PnL
-$2.17
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.