Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maria Rentoumi, while the market favors Katerina Mandelikova (62%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Heraklion: Maria Rentoumi vs Katerina Mandelikova

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Rentoumi (67%) · Maria Rentoumi at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Maria Rentoumi39¢Katerina Mandelikova61¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maria Rentoumi

Consensus Traders

Maria Rentoumi 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$355.95

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 38.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaria Rentoumi at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Rentoumi

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Katerina Mandelikova 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maria Rentoumi39%

Katerina Mandelikova62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maria Rentoumi6 traders

Total Value$323.38

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$248.08

Katerina Mandelikova3 traders

Total Value$230.31

Total Shares438

Combined PnL+$107.88

Maria Rentoumi — 67%Katerina Mandelikova — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Maria Rentoumi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaria Rentoumi 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Maria Rentoumi 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Maria Rentoumiavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Maria Rentoumi leg	Maria Rentoumiavg 50¢	$525	$609	+$84
└ Katerina Mandelikova leg	Katerina Mandelikovaavg 50¢	$525	$462	-$63
38 38791873984189CTR	Maria Rentoumiavg 48.7¢	$388.02	$175.54	+$179.01	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Maria Rentoumiavg 27.4¢	$65.83	$134.48	+$68.65	48% 630-669 (1299)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Katerina Mandelikovaavg 52.6¢	$104.14	$124.74	+$20.6	41% 725-1037 (1762)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Katerina Mandelikovaavg 12.4¢	$17.29	$61.57	+$44.28	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
CI cigarettes<$100	Katerina Mandelikovaavg 1¢	$1	$44	+$43	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Maria Rentoumiavg 74¢	$9	$6.81	-$2.19	46% 877-1027 (1904)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Maria Rentoumiavg 36¢	$2.05	$3.19	+$1.14	46% 631-739 (1370)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Maria Rentoumiavg 4¢	$0.13	$1.81	+$1.69	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
poshposhCTR<$100	Maria Rentoumiavg 64¢	$1.78	$1.56	-$0.22	49% 1311-1390 (2701)

NotJumpARB<$100

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Maria Rentoumi$52550¢+$84

Katerina Mandelikova$52550¢-$63

38791873984189CTR

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

$388.02

Value

$175.54

PnL

+$179.01

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

$65.83

Value

$134.48

PnL

+$68.65

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Katerina Mandelikova

Invested

$104.14

Value

$124.74

PnL

+$20.6

Record

41%

725-1037 (1762)

topdogbigboi<$100

Katerina Mandelikova

Invested

$17.29

Value

$61.57

PnL

+$44.28

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

cigarettes<$100

Katerina Mandelikova

Invested

Value

$44

PnL

+$43

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

smithagentCTR<$100

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

Value

$6.81

PnL

-$2.19

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

$2.05

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$1.14

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

$0.13

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$1.69

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

poshposhCTR<$100

Maria Rentoumi

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

Research grade

NeutralMaria Rentoumi at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Rentoumi

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Katerina Mandelikova 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Maria Rentoumi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaria Rentoumi 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Maria Rentoumi 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maria Rentoumi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.