Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Guilherme Barbieri Renner, while the market favors Pedro Boscardin Dias (98%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Guilherme Barbieri Renner vs Pedro Boscardin Dias

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Guilherme Barbieri Renner (88%) · Guilherme Barbieri Renner at 2.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Guilherme Barbieri Renner2¢Pedro Boscardin Dias98¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Consensus Traders

Guilherme Barbieri Renner 88%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$21.3

Smart Money Entry

17.7¢ → 2¢

-89% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGuilherme Barbieri Renner at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Pedro Boscardin Dias 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Guilherme Barbieri Renner2%

Pedro Boscardin Dias98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Guilherme Barbieri Renner7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,746

Combined PnL+$21.31

Pedro Boscardin Dias1 trader

Total Value$4.75

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.01

Guilherme Barbieri Renner — 88%Pedro Boscardin Dias — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 5.3¢	$57.76	$70.66	+$12.89	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
RN1CTR<$100	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 5¢	$37.77	$41.75	+$3.98	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 5¢	$20.8	$20.8	-$0	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
poshposhCTR<$100	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 5¢	$14.67	$19.08	+$4.4	47% 532-590 (1122)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 5¢	$6.8	$6.8	+$0	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
HY hydra1248<$100	Pedro Boscardin Diasavg 98.9¢	$4.76	$4.75	-$0.01	78% 125-35 (160)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Guilherme Barbieri Renneravg 1.1¢	$0.05	$0.09	+$0.04	48% 342-378 (720)

NotJumpCTR

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$57.76

Value

$70.66

PnL

+$12.89

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

RN1CTR<$100

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$37.77

Value

$41.75

PnL

+$3.98

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

poshposhCTR<$100

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$14.67

Value

$19.08

PnL

+$4.4

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

hydra1248<$100

Pedro Boscardin Dias

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.01

Record

78%

125-35 (160)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

Research grade

AvoidGuilherme Barbieri Renner at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Guilherme Barbieri Renner

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Pedro Boscardin Dias 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Guilherme Barbieri Renner wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.