Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Diletta Cherubini, while the market favors Malaika Rapolu (61%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W50 Chihuahua: Malaika Rapolu vs Diletta Cherubini
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Diletta Cherubini (83%) · Diletta Cherubini at 39¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Diletta Cherubini
6
Diletta Cherubini 83%
$93.67
$7.14
Research grade
NeutralDiletta Cherubini at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Malaika Rapolu 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Diletta Cherubini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 41.7¢ | $41 | $42.73 | +$1.73 | 26% 229-666 (895) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 35.3¢ | $14.4 | $17.76 | +$3.36 | 25% 224-671 (895) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 41¢ | $15.61 | $16.56 | +$0.95 | 26% 230-647 (877) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Malaika Rapoluavg 56¢ | $9.82 | $10.7 | +$0.88 | 38% 209-341 (550) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 40¢ | $3.55 | $3.77 | +$0.22 | 48% 927-1003 (1930) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 42¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 26% 228-657 (885) |
Invested
$41
Value
$42.73
PnL
+$1.73
Record
26%
229-666 (895)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$17.76
PnL
+$3.36
Record
25%
224-671 (895)
Invested
$15.61
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$0.95
Record
26%
230-647 (877)
Invested
$9.82
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.88
Record
38%
209-341 (550)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$0.22
Record
48%
927-1003 (1930)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
228-657 (885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.