M15 Heraklion: Pablo Perez Ramos vs Thando Longwe-Smit
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Thando Longwe-Smit (50%) · Thando Longwe-Smit at 63¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 6
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Neutral
Thando Longwe-Smit
4
Thando Longwe-Smit 50%
$146.97
$30.17
Research grade
NeutralThando Longwe-Smit at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Thando Longwe-Smitavg 32.8¢ | $77.45 | $105.98 | +$28.53 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Pablo Perez Ramosavg 64¢ | $15.45 | $16.73 | +$1.29 | 48% 752-809 (1561) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Thando Longwe-Smitavg 68¢ | $17 | $15.75 | -$1.25 | 86% 5075-857 (5932) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Pablo Perez Ramosavg 30¢ | $6.9 | $8.51 | +$1.61 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
Invested
$77.45
Value
$105.98
PnL
+$28.53
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$15.45
Value
$16.73
PnL
+$1.29
Record
48%
752-809 (1561)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$17
Value
$15.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
86%
5075-857 (5932)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$8.51
PnL
+$1.61
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.