W75 Glasgow: Amelia Rajecki vs Ella Seidel
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ella Seidel (43%) · Ella Seidel at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Ella Seidel
7
Ella Seidel 43%
$4.6K
$555.5
68.2¢ → 100¢
+47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralElla Seidel at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Ella Seidelavg 75.8¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$322.72 | 54% 56020-48151 (104171) |
ST stepanka1234 | Ella Seidelavg 65.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$32.47 | 70% 31-13 (44) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Ella Seidelavg 59.4¢ | $767.6 | $1.1K | +$284.8 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Amelia Rajeckiavg 34¢ | $294.3 | $315.78 | +$21.48 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Amelia Rajeckiavg 18.7¢ | $69.6 | $27.92 | -$41.68 | 60% 3993-2686 (6679) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Amelia Rajeckiavg 29¢ | $1.74 | $2.19 | +$0.45 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100 | Amelia Rajeckiavg 2.5¢ | $0.38 | $0.58 | +$0.2 | 61% 1750-1101 (2851) |
RN1Invested
$1,759.95
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$322.72
Record
54%
56020-48151 (104171)
Invested
$1,176.3
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$32.47
Record
70%
31-13 (44)
Invested
$767.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$284.8
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$294.3
Value
$315.78
PnL
+$21.48
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$27.92
PnL
-$41.68
Record
60%
3993-2686 (6679)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0.45
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.2
Record
61%
1750-1101 (2851)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.