Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Felix Romeo, while the market favors Vuk Radjenovic (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Antalya: Vuk Radjenovic vs Felix Romeo

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Romeo (50%) · Felix Romeo at 0.1¢ · $277 held · ends Nov 17

Vuk Radjenovic>99¢Felix Romeo<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Felix Romeo

Consensus Traders

Felix Romeo 50%

Total Value

$277.01

Combined PnL

$31.62

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidFelix Romeo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Romeo

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Vuk Radjenovic 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vuk Radjenovic100%

Felix Romeo0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Romeo3 traders

Total Value$259.31

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$34.87

Vuk Radjenovic3 traders

Total Value$17.69

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$3.25

Felix Romeo — 50%Vuk Radjenovic — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Felix Romeoavg 72.2¢	$210.58	$241.51	+$30.93	48% 695-751 (1446)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Felix Romeoavg 78¢	$10.64	$11.18	+$0.55	52% 5288-4799 (10087)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Vuk Radjenovicavg 15¢	$8.82	$10.59	+$1.76	54% 1596-1343 (2939)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Felix Romeoavg 40¢	$3.23	$6.62	+$3.39	48% 400-437 (837)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Vuk Radjenovicavg 35¢	$10.5	$5.4	-$5.1	22% 77-281 (358)
US User7429<$100	Vuk Radjenovicavg 9¢	$1.62	$1.71	+$0.09	15% 54-310 (364)

38791873984189CTR

Felix Romeo

Invested

$210.58

Value

$241.51

PnL

+$30.93

Record

48%

695-751 (1446)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Felix Romeo

Invested

$10.64

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0.55

Record

52%

5288-4799 (10087)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Vuk Radjenovic

Invested

$8.82

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$1.76

Record

54%

1596-1343 (2939)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Felix Romeo

Invested

$3.23

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$3.39

Record

48%

400-437 (837)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Vuk Radjenovic

Invested

$10.5

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$5.1

Record

22%

77-281 (358)

User7429<$100

Vuk Radjenovic

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.09

Record

15%

54-310 (364)

Research grade

AvoidFelix Romeo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Romeo

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Vuk Radjenovic 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Romeo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.