M15 Antalya: Dmitry Popko vs Dragos Nicolae Madaras

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dragos Nicolae Madaras (67%) · Dragos Nicolae Madaras at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Dmitry Popko34¢Dragos Nicolae Madaras66¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Consensus Traders

Dragos Nicolae Madaras 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$7.02

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 66.5¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDragos Nicolae Madaras at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dmitry Popko34%

Dragos Nicolae Madaras67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dragos Nicolae Madaras6 traders

Total Value$187.06

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$20.34

Dmitry Popko3 traders

Total Value$137.12

Total Shares381

Combined PnL-$13.32

Dragos Nicolae Madaras — 67%Dmitry Popko — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Dragos Nicolae Madaras. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDragos Nicolae Madaras 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dragos Nicolae Madaras 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 50¢	$1.1K	$903	-$147	52% 793-723 (1516)
└ Dragos Nicolae Madaras leg	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0
└ Dmitry Popko leg	Dmitry Popkoavg 50¢	$525	$378	-$147
38 38791873984189	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 59¢	$128.12	$75.52	+$5.96	48% 3155-3450 (6605)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 37.7¢	$63.15	$60.36	-$2.79	38% 981-1634 (2615)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 43¢	$59.31	$49.65	-$9.65	51% 2485-2431 (4916)
CI cigarettes<$100	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 50¢	$27.29	$34.92	+$7.64	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
dips.<$100	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 64¢	$28.16	$29.26	+$1.1	47% 940-1065 (2005)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 37.2¢	$27.98	$27.11	-$0.87	49% 505-529 (1034)
poshposh<$100	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 50¢	$21	$26.42	+$5.41	48% 1068-1142 (2210)
SM smithagent<$100	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 64¢	$10.72	$11.14	+$0.42	44% 632-791 (1423)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Dragos Nicolae Madarasavg 51¢	$10	$9.8	-$0.2	45% 155-189 (344)

NotJumpARB<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$1,050

Value

$903

PnL

-$147

Record

52%

793-723 (1516)

Both legs:

Dragos Nicolae Madaras$52550¢+$0

Dmitry Popko$52550¢-$147

38791873984189

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Invested

$128.12

Value

$75.52

PnL

+$5.96

Record

48%

3155-3450 (6605)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$63.15

Value

$60.36

PnL

-$2.79

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$59.31

Value

$49.65

PnL

-$9.65

Record

51%

2485-2431 (4916)

cigarettes<$100

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Invested

$27.29

Value

$34.92

PnL

+$7.64

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

dips.<$100

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Invested

$28.16

Value

$29.26

PnL

+$1.1

Record

47%

940-1065 (2005)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$27.98

Value

$27.11

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

505-529 (1034)

poshposh<$100

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Invested

$21

Value

$26.42

PnL

+$5.41

Record

48%

1068-1142 (2210)

smithagent<$100

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Invested

$10.72

Value

$11.14

PnL

+$0.42

Record

44%

632-791 (1423)

glennyorkshire<$100

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

Invested

$10

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

155-189 (344)

Research grade

NeutralDragos Nicolae Madaras at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dragos Nicolae Madaras

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Dragos Nicolae Madaras. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDragos Nicolae Madaras 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dragos Nicolae Madaras 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dragos Nicolae Madaras wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.