M25 Malta: Dmitry Popko vs James MacKinlay

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Dmitry Popko (83%) · Dmitry Popko at 76¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Dmitry Popko76¢James MacKinlay24¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dmitry Popko

Consensus Traders

Dmitry Popko 83%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$145.77

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 76¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDmitry Popko at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dmitry Popko

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dmitry Popko76%

James MacKinlay24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dmitry Popko10 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,695

Combined PnL-$304.38

James MacKinlay2 traders

Total Value$309.23

Total Shares891

Combined PnL+$158.61

Dmitry Popko — 83%James MacKinlay — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Dmitry Popko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDmitry Popko 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrDmitry Popko 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDmitry Popko 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Dmitry Popko 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghostorder	Dmitry Popkoavg 65.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0.6	62% 4353-2679 (7032)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Dmitry Popkoavg 88.2¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$451.26	53% 3165-2783 (5948)
VeryLucky888	Dmitry Popkoavg 95.7¢	$543.96	$549.22	+$5.26	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
38 38791873984189	Dmitry Popkoavg 64.2¢	$498.8	$394.79	+$132.04	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	James MacKinlayavg 8.3¢	$50.82	$212.77	+$161.95	38% 3184-5183 (8367)
poshposh	Dmitry Popkoavg 63.3¢	$190.63	$196.57	+$5.94	59% 9909-6885 (16794)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Dmitry Popkoavg 64.6¢	$171.39	$173.17	+$1.78	59% 30362-21074 (51436)
RN1	Dmitry Popkoavg 65.3¢	$167.82	$167.82	+$0	54% 56314-48471 (104785)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	James MacKinlayavg 35.9¢	$99.8	$96.47	-$3.34	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
SF sfkjbsr457<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 65¢	$65.05	$65.3	+$0.25	54% 8018-6727 (14745)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 63.2¢	$21.86	$23.81	+$1.98	48% 752-809 (1561)
0X 0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1d<$100	Dmitry Popkoavg 75¢	$7.5	$6.53	-$0.97	87% 20-3 (23)

ghostorder

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$1,568.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0.6

Record

62%

4353-2679 (7032)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$1,740.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$451.26

Record

53%

3165-2783 (5948)

VeryLucky888

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$543.96

Value

$549.22

PnL

+$5.26

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

38791873984189

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$498.8

Value

$394.79

PnL

+$132.04

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

topdogbigboiCTR

James MacKinlay

Invested

$50.82

Value

$212.77

PnL

+$161.95

Record

38%

3184-5183 (8367)

poshposh

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$190.63

Value

$196.57

PnL

+$5.94

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$171.39

Value

$173.17

PnL

+$1.78

Record

59%

30362-21074 (51436)

RN1

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$167.82

Value

$167.82

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56314-48471 (104785)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

James MacKinlay

Invested

$99.8

Value

$96.47

PnL

-$3.34

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

sfkjbsr457<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$65.05

Value

$65.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

8018-6727 (14745)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$21.86

Value

$23.81

PnL

+$1.98

Record

48%

752-809 (1561)

0x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1d<$100

Dmitry Popko

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$0.97

Record

87%

20-3 (23)

Research grade

NeutralDmitry Popko at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dmitry Popko

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Dmitry Popko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDmitry Popko 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrDmitry Popko 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDmitry Popko 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Dmitry Popko 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dmitry Popko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.