Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Martin Krumich, while the market favors Matt Ponchet (100%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Sheffield: Matt Ponchet vs Martin Krumich

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Krumich (33%) · Martin Krumich at 0.1¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Matt Ponchet>99¢Martin Krumich<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Martin Krumich

Consensus Traders

Martin Krumich 33%

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMartin Krumich at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Krumich

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Matt Ponchet 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matt Ponchet100%

Martin Krumich0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martin Krumich4 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares13,554

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Matt Ponchet8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,871

Combined PnL-$188.08

Martin Krumich — 33%Matt Ponchet — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fortunekingCTR	Martin Krumichavg 68¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$62	59% 775-538 (1313)
RN1CTR	Martin Krumichavg 52.2¢	$3.8K	$2.8K	-$996.93	54% 56027-48153 (104180)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Matt Ponchetavg 34.1¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$52.76	38% 479-793 (1272)
LO looppau	Matt Ponchetavg 99.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.75	99% 10658-59 (10717)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Matt Ponchetavg 94.8¢	$440.85	$301.32	-$139.53	95% 22943-1156 (24099)
RO Rock.San	Matt Ponchetavg 99.1¢	$182.33	$183.16	+$0.83	89% 11926-1414 (13340)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Martin Krumichavg 67¢	$60.97	$80.54	+$19.56	53% 3129-2763 (5892)
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Matt Ponchetavg 99.1¢	$76.31	$76.96	+$0.65	98% 3273-81 (3354)
poshposhCTR<$100	Martin Krumichavg 17¢	$62.09	$49.7	-$12.39	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
HRTrading<$100	Matt Ponchetavg 67.6¢	$14.37	$16.99	+$2.62	52% 3688-3350 (7038)
US User7429<$100	Matt Ponchetavg 68.9¢	$3.45	$2.8	-$0.64	55% 8179-6588 (14767)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Matt Ponchetavg 2.5¢	$0.26	$0.25	-$0.01	59% 30217-20924 (51141)

fortunekingCTR

Martin Krumich

Invested

$4,431.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$62

Record

59%

775-538 (1313)

RN1CTR

Martin Krumich

Invested

$3,795.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$996.93

Record

54%

56027-48153 (104180)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$1,575

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$52.76

Record

38%

479-793 (1272)

looppau

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$1,498.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.75

Record

99%

10658-59 (10717)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$440.85

Value

$301.32

PnL

-$139.53

Record

95%

22943-1156 (24099)

Rock.San

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$182.33

Value

$183.16

PnL

+$0.83

Record

89%

11926-1414 (13340)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$60.97

Value

$80.54

PnL

+$19.56

Record

53%

3129-2763 (5892)

MarquisDeMott<$100

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$76.31

Value

$76.96

PnL

+$0.65

Record

98%

3273-81 (3354)

poshposhCTR<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$62.09

Value

$49.7

PnL

-$12.39

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

HRTrading<$100

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$14.37

Value

$16.99

PnL

+$2.62

Record

52%

3688-3350 (7038)

User7429<$100

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.64

Record

55%

8179-6588 (14767)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Matt Ponchet

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

30217-20924 (51141)

Research grade

AvoidMartin Krumich at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Krumich

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Matt Ponchet 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martin Krumich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.