Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold William Rejchtman Vinciguerra, while the market favors Rocco Piatti (52%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
M15 Monastir: Rocco Piatti vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold William Rejchtman Vinciguerra (33%) · William Rejchtman Vinciguerra at 48¢ · $357 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
3
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra 33%
$357.23
$3.8
Research grade
NeutralWilliam Rejchtman Vinciguerra at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Rocco Piatti 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295CTR | William Rejchtman Vinciguerraavg 50.5¢ | $193.67 | $180.18 | -$13.48 | 67% 208-101 (309) |
 poshposh<$100 | Rocco Piattiavg 46.4¢ | $88.58 | $98 | +$9.42 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Rocco Piattiavg 49.3¢ | $74.98 | $79.04 | +$7.86 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
Invested
$193.67
Value
$180.18
PnL
-$13.48
Record
67%
208-101 (309)
poshposh<$100Invested
$88.58
Value
$98
PnL
+$9.42
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$74.98
Value
$79.04
PnL
+$7.86
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.