W50 Chihuahua: Zuzanna Pawlikowska vs Sofia Johnson

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sofia Johnson (75%) · Sofia Johnson at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Zuzanna Pawlikowska32¢Sofia Johnson68¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sofia Johnson

Consensus Traders

Sofia Johnson 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$375.49

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 68.5¢

+108% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSofia Johnson at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sofia Johnson

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Zuzanna Pawlikowska32%

Sofia Johnson69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sofia Johnson3 traders

Total Value$815.1

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL+$373.78

Zuzanna Pawlikowska1 trader

Total Value$4.86

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$1.71

Sofia Johnson — 75%Zuzanna Pawlikowska — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sofia Johnsonavg 32.8¢	$437.49	$813.13	+$375.64	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
RN1ARB<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 66.7¢	$841.82	$473.17	-$368.65	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
└ Zuzanna Pawlikowska leg	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 66.7¢	$810.25	$376.57	-$433.68
└ Sofia Johnson leg	Sofia Johnsonavg 22.5¢	$31.57	$96.6	+$65.03
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 64.9¢	$163.96	$191.42	+$27.47	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Sofia Johnson leg	Sofia Johnsonavg 27.5¢	$55.74	$138.88	+$83.13
└ Zuzanna Pawlikowska leg	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 64.9¢	$108.21	$52.55	-$55.67
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 44¢	$3.14	$4.86	+$1.71	20% 91-357 (448)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 70¢	$3.5	$1.65	-$1.85	38% 215-345 (560)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 33¢	$0.33	$0.32	-$0.01	24% 107-332 (439)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$437.49

Value

$813.13

PnL

+$375.64

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

RN1ARB<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$841.82

Value

$473.17

PnL

-$368.65

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

Both legs:

Zuzanna Pawlikowska$810.2566.7¢-$433.68

Sofia Johnson$31.5722.5¢+$65.03

38791873984189ARB<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$163.96

Value

$191.42

PnL

+$27.47

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Sofia Johnson$55.7427.5¢+$83.13

Zuzanna Pawlikowska$108.2164.9¢-$55.67

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$3.14

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$1.71

Record

20%

91-357 (448)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$1.85

Record

38%

215-345 (560)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

107-332 (439)

Research grade

NeutralSofia Johnson at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sofia Johnson

3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sofia Johnson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.