W15 Paris: Iva Primorac Pavicic vs Beatrise Zeltina

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Iva Primorac Pavicic (85%) · Iva Primorac Pavicic at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 21

Iva Primorac Pavicic>99¢Beatrise Zeltina<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Consensus Traders

Iva Primorac Pavicic 85%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$519.1

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralIva Primorac Pavicic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iva Primorac Pavicic

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Iva Primorac Pavicic100%

Beatrise Zeltina0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iva Primorac Pavicic11 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,594

Combined PnL-$443.6

Beatrise Zeltina2 traders

Total Value$97.32

Total Shares621

Combined PnL-$75.5

Iva Primorac Pavicic — 85%Beatrise Zeltina — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 73.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.5	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 72.8¢	$609.59	$772.47	+$162.88	48% 509-543 (1052)
poshposh	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 71.2¢	$637.13	$649.06	+$11.93	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 73.3¢	$606.89	$599.99	-$6.9	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
SL SlickRick123	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 74¢	$1.1K	$536.51	-$597.83	34% 364-700 (1064)
38 38791873984189	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 73.1¢	$484.22	$373.2	-$20.82	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
US User7429	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 61¢	$183	$199.5	+$16.5	40% 327-489 (816)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Beatrise Zeltinaavg 27.9¢	$170.26	$94.71	-$75.55	46% 481-569 (1050)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 71.3¢	$92.7	$91.65	-$1.05	44% 360-461 (821)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 92¢	$46	$49.98	+$3.98	98% 454-7 (461)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 65¢	$6.5	$6.65	+$0.15	38% 531-876 (1407)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Beatrise Zeltinaavg 27¢	$2.56	$2.61	+$0.05	45% 651-805 (1456)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 34¢	$2.22	$2.28	+$0.07	45% 158-194 (352)

cigarettes

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

CandleHammerDrums

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$609.59

Value

$772.47

PnL

+$162.88

Record

48%

509-543 (1052)

poshposh

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$637.13

Value

$649.06

PnL

+$11.93

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$606.89

Value

$599.99

PnL

-$6.9

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

SlickRick123

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$1,134.34

Value

$536.51

PnL

-$597.83

Record

34%

364-700 (1064)

38791873984189

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$484.22

Value

$373.2

PnL

-$20.82

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

User7429

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$183

Value

$199.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

40%

327-489 (816)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Beatrise Zeltina

Invested

$170.26

Value

$94.71

PnL

-$75.55

Record

46%

481-569 (1050)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$92.7

Value

$91.65

PnL

-$1.05

Record

44%

360-461 (821)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$46

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$3.98

Record

98%

454-7 (461)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

531-876 (1407)

smithagentCTR<$100

Beatrise Zeltina

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

651-805 (1456)

glennyorkshire<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

158-194 (352)

Research grade

NeutralIva Primorac Pavicic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Iva Primorac Pavicic

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iva Primorac Pavicic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.