M25 Norman, OK: Theo Papamalamis vs Alex Rybakov

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Theo Papamalamis (67%) · Theo Papamalamis at 60¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 4

Theo Papamalamis60¢Alex Rybakov40¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Theo Papamalamis

Consensus Traders

Theo Papamalamis 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.1K

Combined PnL

-$452.9

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 60¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTheo Papamalamis at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Theo Papamalamis

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Theo Papamalamis60%

Alex Rybakov40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Theo Papamalamis4 traders

Total Value$879.9

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL-$426.47

Alex Rybakov2 traders

Total Value$142.61

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$26.43

Theo Papamalamis — 67%Alex Rybakov — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Theo Papamalamisavg 80.2¢	$40.7K	$35.9K	$-4.8K	63% 259-151 (410)
└ Theo Papamalamis leg	Theo Papamalamisavg 80.2¢	$28.8K	$18.0K	$-10.9K
└ Alex Rybakov leg	Alex Rybakovavg 33.1¢	$11.9K	$18.0K	+$6.1K
poshposhARB<$100	Theo Papamalamisavg 66.4¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$132.05	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
└ Theo Papamalamis leg	Theo Papamalamisavg 66.4¢	$829.52	$611.83	-$217.69
└ Alex Rybakov leg	Alex Rybakovavg 19.1¢	$210.05	$559.78	+$349.74
BE berlinskies	Theo Papamalamisavg 79¢	$749.94	$446.38	-$303.56	58% 5767-4229 (9996)
YE yesmate	Theo Papamalamisavg 67.2¢	$252	$225	-$27	52% 350-327 (677)
OM omnibus-076daa	Theo Papamalamisavg 81.6¢	$244.84	$141.11	-$103.73	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
RN1CTR	Alex Rybakovavg 59¢	$111.24	$99.93	-$11.31	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
US User7429<$100	Theo Papamalamisavg 63.2¢	$59.59	$67.41	+$7.82	55% 8110-6552 (14662)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Alex Rybakovavg 40¢	$57.8	$42.68	-$15.12	67% 23116-11520 (34636)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$40,696.32

Value

$35.9K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

63%

259-151 (410)

Both legs:

Theo Papamalamis$28,818.2680.2¢$-10.9K

Alex Rybakov$11,878.0633.1¢+$6.1K

poshposhARB<$100

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$1,039.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$132.05

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Both legs:

Theo Papamalamis$829.5266.4¢-$217.69

Alex Rybakov$210.0519.1¢+$349.74

berlinskies

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$749.94

Value

$446.38

PnL

-$303.56

Record

58%

5767-4229 (9996)

yesmate

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$252

Value

$225

PnL

-$27

Record

52%

350-327 (677)

omnibus-076daa

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$244.84

Value

$141.11

PnL

-$103.73

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

RN1CTR

Alex Rybakov

Invested

$111.24

Value

$99.93

PnL

-$11.31

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

User7429<$100

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$59.59

Value

$67.41

PnL

+$7.82

Record

55%

8110-6552 (14662)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Alex Rybakov

Invested

$57.8

Value

$42.68

PnL

-$15.12

Record

67%

23116-11520 (34636)

Research grade

NeutralTheo Papamalamis at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Theo Papamalamis

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Theo Papamalamis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.