M15 Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Nicolas Jadoun
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Aziz Ouakaa (50%) · Aziz Ouakaa at 100¢ · $457 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Aziz Ouakaa
4
Aziz Ouakaa 50%
2 arb excluded
$456.67
$25.49
Research grade
NeutralAziz Ouakaa at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Aziz Ouakaa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhARB<$100 | Nicolas Jadounavg 74¢ | $326.25 | $266.25 | -$60 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
| └ Nicolas Jadoun leg | Nicolas Jadounavg 74¢ | $222 | $162 | -$60 | |
| └ Aziz Ouakaa leg | Aziz Ouakaaavg 46¢ | $104.25 | $104.25 | -$0 | |
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100 | Aziz Ouakaaavg 47.5¢ | $90.8 | $90.88 | +$0.08 | 54% 8018-6727 (14745) |
| └ Aziz Ouakaa leg | Aziz Ouakaaavg 47.5¢ | $47.5 | $46 | -$1.5 | |
| └ Nicolas Jadoun leg | Nicolas Jadounavg 52.1¢ | $43.3 | $44.88 | +$1.58 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Aziz Ouakaaavg 45.5¢ | $51.01 | $66.58 | +$15.57 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Nicolas Jadounavg 26¢ | $8.12 | $16.86 | +$8.74 | 55% 8237-6651 (14888) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Nicolas Jadounavg 69¢ | $10.35 | $11.1 | +$0.75 | 86% 5075-857 (5932) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Aziz Ouakaaavg 37¢ | $3.93 | $4.88 | +$0.42 | 55% 1723-1416 (3139) |
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$326.25
Value
$266.25
PnL
-$60
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.8
Value
$90.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
8018-6727 (14745)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.01
Value
$66.58
PnL
+$15.57
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
Invested
$8.12
Value
$16.86
PnL
+$8.74
Record
55%
8237-6651 (14888)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$10.35
Value
$11.1
PnL
+$0.75
Record
86%
5075-857 (5932)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.42
Record
55%
1723-1416 (3139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.