M15 Selva Gardena: Giovanni Oradini vs Matteo Fondriest
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Giovanni Oradini (33%) · Giovanni Oradini at 92¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Giovanni Oradini
3
Giovanni Oradini 33%
$7.9K
-$43.45
Research grade
NeutralGiovanni Oradini at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Giovanni Oradiniavg 90.6¢ | $8.7K | $7.8K | -$54.73 | 77% 27-8 (35) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Matteo Fondriestavg 9¢ | $78.82 | $90.1 | +$11.28 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Matteo Fondriestavg 10¢ | $0.11 | $0.11 | +$0 | 60% 9092-6016 (15108) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.