M25 Columbus, OH: Alexander Okonkwo vs Theo Papamalamis

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Theo Papamalamis (63%) · Theo Papamalamis at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Alexander Okonkwo33¢Theo Papamalamis67¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Theo Papamalamis

Consensus Traders

Theo Papamalamis 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$9.95

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 67.5¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTheo Papamalamis at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Theo Papamalamis

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alexander Okonkwo33%

Theo Papamalamis68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Theo Papamalamis5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,786

Combined PnL-$26.53

Alexander Okonkwo3 traders

Total Value$442.98

Total Shares984

Combined PnL+$16.58

Theo Papamalamis — 63%Alexander Okonkwo — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Theo Papamalamis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alexander Okonkwo) and the top 1000 (8 on Theo Papamalamis) disagree here.

ctrAlexander Okonkwo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlexander Okonkwo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Theo Papamalamis 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Alexander Okonkwoavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Theo Papamalamis leg	Theo Papamalamisavg 50¢	$525	$577.5	+$52.5
└ Alexander Okonkwo leg	Alexander Okonkwoavg 50¢	$525	$472.5	-$52.5
CA CandleHammerDrums	Theo Papamalamisavg 56.3¢	$840.15	$820.29	-$19.86	48% 342-378 (720)
alpheclabs2	Theo Papamalamisavg 55¢	$544.81	$544.81	-$0	46% 196-234 (430)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Alexander Okonkwoavg 43.9¢	$411.63	$421.62	+$9.99	46% 89-104 (193)
38 38791873984189	Theo Papamalamisavg 57.6¢	$105.97	$101.2	-$4.77	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Theo Papamalamisavg 55.9¢	$64.25	$63.25	-$1	41% 257-370 (627)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Alexander Okonkwoavg 26¢	$10	$17.31	+$7.31	45% 100-123 (223)
RN1CTR<$100	Alexander Okonkwoavg 53¢	$4.77	$4.05	-$0.72	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
PA Pan9X<$100	Theo Papamalamisavg 74¢	$3.49	$2.59	-$0.89	49% 1077-1133 (2210)

NotJumpARB<$100

Alexander Okonkwo

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Theo Papamalamis$52550¢+$52.5

Alexander Okonkwo$52550¢-$52.5

CandleHammerDrums

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$840.15

Value

$820.29

PnL

-$19.86

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

alpheclabs2

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$544.81

Value

$544.81

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

196-234 (430)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Alexander Okonkwo

Invested

$411.63

Value

$421.62

PnL

+$9.99

Record

46%

89-104 (193)

38791873984189

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$105.97

Value

$101.2

PnL

-$4.77

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$64.25

Value

$63.25

PnL

-$1

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Alexander Okonkwo

Invested

$10

Value

$17.31

PnL

+$7.31

Record

45%

100-123 (223)

RN1CTR<$100

Alexander Okonkwo

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.72

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

Pan9X<$100

Theo Papamalamis

Invested

$3.49

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.89

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

Research grade

NeutralTheo Papamalamis at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Theo Papamalamis

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Theo Papamalamis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Alexander Okonkwo) and the top 1000 (8 on Theo Papamalamis) disagree here.

ctrAlexander Okonkwo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlexander Okonkwo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Theo Papamalamis 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Theo Papamalamis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.